The Night the Wind Changed

Five days after the joust between a mediocre Donald Trump and a caustic Hillary Clinton, the verdict is virtually unanimous: Hillary is the winner of the debate. However, one debate does not determine the election, and 2016 is a year like no other.

Donald – 0

Although he no longer has to convince his base of supporters, Donald Trump needed to cast his net wider, especially among women and minorities. Alas, he was unable to do so. Taking himself for some sort of king of the miracle workers, he alluded to the “hell” that the latter are experiencing, while only referring to “law and order” when talking about his policies. In the same breath, he went on to lump together African-Americans, Hispanics and crime. When he made his smug boast of not having attacked Bill Clinton’s infidelities, he forgot about Hillary’s popularity during the Lewinsky affair.

His daughter Ivanka, the only spokesperson who was able to enlarge his base of female voters, has maintained a deafening silence since her disastrous interview with Cosmo magazine. The next debate will include questions from the audience, and this will force Trump to redefine his modus operandi. Is he capable of doing so?

Madam Secretary – 1

Hillary Clinton has maneuvered with skill. Through Alicia Machado, the [beauty pageant winner] who was mistreated by the property mogul, she gave a face to the three main weaknesses of the Trump campaign: women, minorities and bullying. Above all, for the first time since her nomination, [Clinton] has defined the terms of the electoral debate; this is something that researchers Michael Mazzar and John Kingdon have deemed crucial.

Since the debate, in fact, the Democrats have had the wind in their sails. Proving that this is the result of recent developments in the media, the greater responsiveness of the electorate — which, crucially, is broader than in that of the primaries — has placed Donald Trump under the spotlight. Misogynistic statements, adulterous behavior, the embezzlement committed by his foundation, violations of the embargo against Cuba, erratic behavior — the stories came one after another. From one side of the political spectrum to the other, the media (USA Today, Arizona Republic, The Cincinnati Enquirer and Dallas Morning News have all officially disowned Donald Trump) were waiting for someone else to sound the alarm before publishing their stories.

If the election were held tomorrow, we could easily assume that there would be a landslide victory, similar to that inflicted on Walter Mondale in 1984. The polls, including that of Public Policy Polling, show that Clinton is winning in several key states, while the aggregate of the polls produced by Real Clear Politics gives her a three-point lead at the national level.

Thirty-Eight Days to Go

All the same, there are 38 days left until the election and there are still plenty of unknowns. There are also seismic shockwaves running through the electorate, who, on the one hand, are more polarized than ever, but on the other hand support independent candidates more than ever before.

Firstly, the millennial generation, which is more versatile, more mobile, less religious and less politicized, now carries the same weight as the baby-boomers. However, only 46 percent of the former voted in 2012, compared with 72 percent of the latter. The awakening of the millennials, who have been energized by Bernie Sanders, could cause a commotion — if it actually happens.

The same applies to the Hispanics, whose share of the electorate reached record levels this year, due to the fact that 3.2 million young people have just turned 18 and 1.2 million new citizens have been naturalized since 2012. In fact, Hispanic voters have even more potential to cause a commotion because they are not a homogenous group that is moving from one end to the other of the political spectrum, but rather a heterogeneous community whose common feature is low turnout rates — 13 points below the national average in 2012.

For team Clinton, Florida, the flagship state of the 2000 election, is emblematic of these fears. In this key state, Hispanics represent more than 15 percent of registered voters and African-Americans more than 13 percent. With regard to African-American voters, the Democratic Party wants to make sure that disenchanted people, especially those in swing states, don’t stay at home on Nov. 8. This is why Barack Obama has scheduled two appearances there before the election. He won 95 percent of their vote in 2008 and in 2012; Hillary Clinton is 10 points behind and Democrats are not taking this lightly.

They now need to take advantage of the fact that their candidate won the likability contest last Monday, proving that, contrary to what recent research has suggested, the personal qualities of an individual could still prevail against polarization and partisanship.