Internal Strife in US Politics May Continue

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 21 February 2017
by Wu Youmin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Fiona McAllister. Edited by Christina Virkus.
United States politics continue to be plagued by internal strife, and it may even further intensify. Recently, there has been a high instance of Trump’s name appearing in the same articles as the words “accused of misconduct” in the U.S. media. The U.S. National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, who only took office 24 days ago, has been dismissed after speaking to the Russian ambassador to the U.S. over the phone before Trump took office, thereby breaking a U.S. law enacted in the 18th century which prohibits private citizens from consulting with foreign governments without prior authorization.

The relentless media pursuance is an act, and the revelation of this phone call could, in itself, be a political plot. At the time this became public, Republican Party members still sided with Trump, while the Democrats and their supporters refused to let this go. This is unusual, otherwise this situation would unlikely be described as sacrificing one member of the group to save the rest. This situation mirrors the struggle between the different political parties in American domestic politics that persists even after election season ends, that persists even after the new president has taken office and even during the apparent bull market of American currency and assets. Trump’s political opponents, and his opponents among the populace, still want him out of office, while rational anti-Trump politicians and economists wish to restrict or reduce Trump’s power.

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, or the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, are like two sides of the same coin. Trump was not originally part of the mainstream American political elite, but was part of the economic elite; both he and Hillary Clinton are miles ahead of the general population in terms of finance and power. But both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party are currently defending the American political system, and both want to continue America’s position of global hegemony, although they are representing different interests.

As they deal with the current state of the nation, how are the Republican Party and the Democratic Party — Trump and his opponents, respectively — ever going to settle the ever-expanding social divergence in the U.S.? On international issues, many people have differing opinions on whether the U.S. should concentrate primarily on its own economy, on whether it should continue to act as if it were the “world police” as well as whether it should continue its globalization efforts. In America, do they allow industry workers to bypass the service industry and up-and-coming industries? Or do they develop traditional and base industries, thus absorbing manual labor? Or do they develop the economy by cutting taxes? Such disputes represent the social, regional, racial and industrial divides within America.

Within both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party there are groups who represent different interests. Trump’s rise to power has not resolved these problems, but rather reawakened former problems: Trump has rejected several domestic and foreign policies enacted by the Obama administration and even previous Republican administrations as a way to garner support and thus gain power. Still, this is all insufficient to bring Trump’s political career to an early end. I have no intention of estimating the political prospects of Trump’s influence. In the short term, we need to watch to see whether Trump can stabilize support from the Republican base; perhaps he could share some of his power or his political ideas with other Republican Party members. If he fails to maintain a majority backing from the Republican Party, his situation could become difficult. Within the U.S., he also needs to stabilize the economy as quickly as possible in order to ensure an upward trend within America’s manufacturing industries and financial industries, and thus improve America’s job market and create continued prosperity in the financial market. Internationally, it is assumed that Trump will have difficulty altering U.S. foreign policy toward China and Russia.

Whether Trump manages to create some level of stability while in power or not, American society has already been ripped apart by the 2016 election. The internal power struggle of the elite will also intensify, and in the short term, the United States is facing a political crisis. While roughly half the U.S. population supports Trump and the other half opposes him, the divisions in American society are likely to grow rather than improve.

The author is a senior commentator in Hong Kong.


美国的政治内斗持续,还有进一步激化的可能。近来,在美国媒体上,“特朗普”的名字和“弹劾”一词同时出现的文章为数不少。上任才24天的美国国家安全顾问迈克尔•弗林(Michael Flynn)被解职;他被指在特朗普就职前与俄罗斯驻美大使通电话,从而可能触犯美国18世纪末生效,禁止公民与未经授权与外国政府协商的法律。
  传媒穷追猛打是演戏,通电话本身和消息被披露却都可能涉及政治阴谋。在本文截稿前,共和党人仍倾向偏袒特朗普,民主党及其支持者则死咬着不放。此事非比寻常,否则就不会有或许叫做“丢卒保车”的一幕上演了。
  事件却反映美国国内不同政治派别斗争并未因美国大选结束、新总统上台以及美元和资产市场上出现的“特朗普升市”而结束,反对特朗普的政敌及民众仍然希望把特朗普拉下台,理智的反特朗普政客和经济人则希望约束或削减特朗普的权力。
  特朗普和希拉里或共和党和民主党的政治精英犹如一枚硬币的两面。特朗普原来不是美国的主流政治精英,却是经济精英,他与希拉里一样,在美国经济和权力分配中,两人与广大民众的距离是很大的。而共和党和民主党都是维护美国现体制的,也都希望延续美国在全球的霸权地位,但代表着不同的利益方,两党的斗争也非始于近年。
  面对美国当前的国运,共和党和民主党、特朗普与他的政敌对如何解决美国社会矛盾的分歧扩大了,斗争也出乎意料地恶化。在国际问题上,不同的人对美国是否应该首先集中搞好本国经济,还是继续积极充当国际警察,以及应否继续推行全球化等有不同的看法。在美国国内,让传统工业的工人分流到服务业和新兴行业,还是把传统工业和基础工业发展起来,从而吸纳劳动力;或通过减税发展经济,还是增加第二次分配从而改善贫富差异等问题都有分歧。
  那些分歧既反映了美国国内的阶级和地区矛盾,也反映了种族和行业矛盾,两党党内不同的派别代表着不同的利益集团。特朗普上台并没有解决那些矛盾,反而激化了原来矛盾,因为特朗普是以否定奥巴马和前共和党政府的许多内外政策作为噱头争取支持上台的。
  然而,那些都不足提前结束特朗普的政治生命。笔者无意猜测事件对特朗普政治前途的影响程度。在短期内,那在很大程度上需要看特朗普能否稳住共和党对他的支持;特朗普或许会与一些共和党人分享权力或治国的政治理念,如果不能维持多数共和党人的支持,特朗普的处境会能困难。在美国国内,他也要尽快地在经济上做出成绩来稳定他的基本盘,会继续倾向美国的一些传统制造业和金融业,以改善美国国内的就业情况和让资本市场持续繁荣。在国际上,估计特朗普未来并不容易大幅修改美国原来的对俄罗斯或中国政策。
  不论特朗普今后是否能在他的位置上坐得稳,美国社会在2016年选举后已被严重撕裂,精英的内部斗争也将越演越烈;美国在短期内发生政治危机的可能性增加了。而在美国国内反对和支持特朗普的人约各占一半的情况下,美国社会的分裂甚至还会加剧,而不是改善。(作者为香港资深评论员)
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