Understanding Donald Trump

The scandal surrounding Russia’s so-called meddling in U.S. internal affairs in no way adds to Washington’s prestige on the world stage. And one may even say it’s the first time in modern history that there’s been such an unstable domestic political situation in America. And solving the entire complex of shared problems that have accumulated between Russia and the U.S. is extremely difficult; Moscow simply doesn’t know how Washington will conduct itself.

Moreover, in light of the “witch hunt,” many of the current administration’s actions will be motivated by a desire to demonstrate as convincingly as possible the absence of any affinity for Russia. Since Donald Trump’s inauguration, we’ve been waiting for concrete actions and an intelligible foreign policy course from him. But the U.S. president is in a very difficult position now, and it simply can’t help but have an effect on his foreign policy. It’s for this very reason that many of the actions of the leader in the White House now are an attempt to prove his “dislike” for Russia and show his “muscle” to the whole world. He simply has no other choice.

To start with, the U.S. carried out Tomahawk missile strikes against a Syrian military base. It was a signal that the new administration will try to prevent Russia from dominating the Middle East. But in reality, the action had only a colossal destabilizing effect on Syria and in no way contributed to the peace process in the country.

Trump supported the idea of creating a so-called Arab NATO. Yet while the idea is very ambitious, it hasn’t been worked out. After all, it’s well known that the Arab countries have never had particularly friendly relations. An “Arab NATO” would be created against Shiite Iran. But there are a lot of Shiites living in many of the Arab countries, which makes a potential new military organization highly improbable. In short, the project is politically and diplomatically far from ideal and might only lead to increased confrontation.

Yet another example: The U.S. has recently already rushed its third aircraft carrier toward North Korea. Washington is clearly trying to display its might and intimidate unfriendly countries. As for the situation on the Korean Peninsula, many believe that the conflict with Pyongyang might not end with plain old intimidation. That is, in this case as well, U.S. foreign policy efforts are aimed not at stabilization but at shaking up the situation in the region.

And of course, the main problem is that the pursuit of solving these crises together with Russia is being hampered in every possible way. Under current conditions and pressure from the American establishment, the leader in the White House is simply forced to do everything to “prove” his “negative attitude” toward Russia. Thus, at the Group of Seven leading industrial nations’ meeting, Trump talked about increasing NATO’s budget. Against whom is the military alliance, created way back in the middle of the last century, increasing its budget? It’s clear that it’s against Moscow. And it’s yet another vivid example that proves his desire to please the American establishment.

The U.S. president will have to prove for a long time to come that he isn’t a “pro-Russian president,” which is what fully half of America’s politicians and the media have quite unjustly dubbed him. It’s entirely possible that some indirect actions will be taken that are aimed de facto against Russia. And here’s an example: Barack Obama, the previous American president, and Vladimir Putin, the head of Russia, supported the climate change agreement in Paris. Now Trump says that the U.S. will withdraw from the agreement. Everything is being done to avoid agreeing with the position Moscow supports.

Meanwhile, Trump’s opponents are using absolutely far-fetched and, frankly, stupid arguments against him: some kinds of back channels, spy games, and mythical hackers. Yet for all the improbability and absurdity of these accusations, the entire Senate Intelligence Committee has opened an investigation against the president.

Europe has ended up in the most difficult situation. The EU feels very uncomfortable. The fact that Emmanuel Macron, the new French president, extended an invitation to Vladimir Putin first thing is an indication that the EU is extremely concerned about the developments in Washington and doesn’t understand Trump’s future plans.

The current situation is confounding political forces the world over.

Right now, no one can answer the question: “What will Donald Trump do?” So long as the swirl of scandals and investigations in Washington continues, there’s no need to speak definitively about the prospects for relations between Russia and the U.S. or the EU and the United States. But if there’s one thing you need not doubt, it’s that Trump won’t openly provoke Russia.