US Moving Its Middle Eastern Bases, New Alliances Now Coming to Light

The United States’ strategy in the Middle East can be well understood by the use of its bases on its allies’ land. The presence of a U.S. outpost in a country is always an indication of significance, but the withdrawal from one base to another is an especially unequivocal sign of major changes taking place.

Incirlik, the First Transgression

According to military sources at Debka, a news agency affiliated with Israeli services, the Pentagon is currently weighing at least two decisions that could significantly change the military arena of the Middle East. The first decision, already feared some weeks ago, provides for the gradual withdrawal from the Incirlik base in Turkey.

The NATO base, used by the U.S. Air Force for its war on the Islamic State in Syria, has become a subject of discussion between Ankara and Washington in recent months. In fact, the Turkish government would like to discontinue the use agreement for its base due to America’s ambiguous policy regarding the Kurds.

The U.S., on the other hand, does not have a strong interest in maintaining this base since it already has abundant outposts in Syria. The American-led coalition’s war has indeed changed the strategic framework for the American forces. Now the United States can rely on a whole series of posts in Syrian and Iraqi territory, in addition to the historical ones in Jordan and Israel. In essence, it can do without the Turkish base if it remains under the NATO umbrella. Right now, it looks like the Pentagon is looking to replace Incirlik with the Greek Andravida base.

Revolution at Al-Udeid

Deeply tied to the Incirlik issue, there is another major scheme in the Persian Gulf that could truly represent a revolutionary change in America’s regional strategy. According to Israeli military sources, the meeting between Mohammed bin Salman and U.S. officials may have spawned the idea to move American troops from Al-Udeid in Qatar, to Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.

The transfer of U.S. armed forces from Doha to Saudi Arabia, to a base located 77 km south of Riyadh, near Al Kharj (approximately 48 miles), would certainly constitute a revolutionary act. Keep in mind that a year ago, in June 2017, the Al-Udeid base was still one of the main American (and British) Air Force hubs in the Gulf region. It had around 11,000 soldiers belonging to the international anti-Islamic State coalition and about 100 warplanes.

If this transfer of U.S. troops is confirmed, the United States would be sending an unequivocal signal to the Middle East: A bloc of nations has been born and is openly deployed against Iran. And in this sense, the meeting with James Mattis indicates proof of the consolidation of the axis between the Americans and Saudis.

The End of Ambiguity

If it continued these two projects, the United States would be confirming the new regional strategy aimed exclusively at stopping Iran. But it is also a sign that the times of ambiguous relations with Washington have ended. For the U.S., countries that look favorably on Iran or whose self-directed policies generally contradict White House interests cannot be their allies. The U.S. wants countries fully aligned with it.

Turkey and Qatar are two symbols of this American policy. Their alliance, confirmed by the Turkish base in Doha, has always been viewed with suspicion. The two countries are united by deep political and cultural ties, most importantly by the Muslim Brotherhood; they are a thorn in the side of the Saudi monarchy’s regional hegemonic determination. Furthermore, their ambiguous relationship with Iran makes it hard to determine which side they would take in the event of conflict.

With these two decisions, the United States is staying ahead of the game. Its troops will be with whomever they deem its true ally. Donald Trump’s administration has decided to change its approach to the region that spans the Eastern Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf. The international arena is in the balance. The United States, with perpetually waning leadership in the area, is now interested in maintaining its bases in countries it considers to be solid allies, or in consolidating the network of alliances. Beyond a reduction, a simplification of Washington’s strategy is under way. Although there is a risk: the polarization of confrontation.