Syria and the US Withdrawal

President Donald Trump’s sudden announcement of the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria “very soon” and his suggestion to “let the other people take care of it now” is more of a surprise than an expression of a real possibility that action will carried out on the ground. Trump did not mention that he spoke spontaneously, suggesting that his statement underwent prior discussion in the White House.

The surprise lies in its timing. A decision to withdraw support contradicts the upward trend of events in Syria and the region. It is in complete contrast to talk about the battle with the Islamic State being incomplete, and to what American generals are saying, headed by Secretary of Defense James Mattis. The generals discuss staying in Syria indefinitely, but are demanding an increase in the number of forces. They also want to reinforce U.S. forces in Manbij in anticipation of a possible confrontation with the Turkish forces.

It is not surprising that Trump’s announcement coincides with the loss of the last opposition strongholds in Eastern Ghouta. They were about to launch a military strike against the regime in response to the government’s alleged chemical attacks, but changed course after feeling that it would inevitably lead to a clash with Russia. What does all this mean? Has Washington abandoned its allies in the Syrian opposition, including the Kurdish units that formed the spearhead in uprooting the Islamic State group from its main stronghold in Raqqa? What does it mean to let other people take care of it? Does it mean returning to strategic calculations and leaving the matter to Turkey and its allies as a member of the NATO alliance? Will they remain firm, no matter what tactical conflicts exist between them?

In sum, the decision to withdraw from Syria is a strategic option that will not only disrupt any political solution to the Syrian crisis, but will also affect U.S. policy in the region overall.

In his speech to the American poor,* Trump justified the withdrawal by saying that the United States had spent $7 trillion in the Middle East and that he wanted to utilize these exorbitant funds to improve infrastructure, schools and hospitals for the benefit of Americans. But this talk surprised Americans themselves. Even the U.S. State Department announced at the time that it had no information about such a decision. It appears to have caused controversy between political and military leaders. There are those in the Pentagon who pushed their intention to stay in Syria for at least two years and increase the number of troops to about 5,000. There are those who say Trump informed his advisers of the decision to withdraw, and that he decided to freeze $200 million that was earmarked for reconstruction in Syria. Meanwhile, Republican senator and member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Lindsey Graham, thinks that after a quick withdrawal “ISIL would come back, the war between Turkey and the Kurds would get out of hand, and you’d be giving Damascus to the Iranians.” This controversy will be decided by the U.S. National Security Council.

*Editor’s note: Trump was speaking at a union training facility in Richfield, Ohio.