Why Trump Can Attack the Turkish Stream To Strike at Putin

The contest of strength between the United States and Turkey could soon shift to energy, and Ankara’s future economic stability could depend on a pipeline.

As the contest of strength between the United States and Turkey continues, Turkish President Recep Erdogan yesterday began retaliating against White House threats to impose duties on steel and aluminum from Ankara. He announced that the country would boycott American electronic products, a measure aimed chiefly at the digital economy, such as Apple and other companies. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu spoke of “economic bullying” on the part of Americans, but the row could soon escalate into one over energy.

According to some analysts, an assault on Russia’s efforts to penetrate the European energy market is the real driver behind Washington’s strategy to ramp up tension with the Turkish government. Moscow and Ankara launched the Turkish Stream gas pipeline project in 2017, another attempt on the part of the Kremlin to conquer the European market through a Western route (a new version of the South Stream project). For Turkey, meanwhile, it symbolizes the country’s new geographic importance as a hub for the transport of energy between Europe and Asia. However, the plans of Vladimir Putin and Erdogan have come up against the strategy behind Donald Trump’s “energy dominance” doctrine — the mass production of shale gas and tight oil used also as a means to boost geopolitical power.

Up until now the American administration has preferred to concentrate on ridding itself of another big thorn in its side: the Russian-German pipeline known as Nord Stream. For the moment, the Nord Stream seems to be holding out against pressure from Washington, partly due to the determination of the German government. Putin and Angela Merkel are meeting again this Saturday to talk of the gas pipeline.

The Turkish crisis offers Trump the possibility of a decisive strike against a project such as the Turkish Stream which, only a few days ago, was described by Secretary of Energy Rick Perry as “useless, inasmuch as it would only increase one source of supply to Europe, the Russian supply.”* Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Diplomacy Sandra Oudkirk was even clearer when she spoke in front of Congress last week. She told members that the U.S. would oppose in every possible way the construction of the Turkish Stream.

As a number of diplomatic sources have confirmed to Il Foglio, the Russian-Turkish pipeline is even more dangerous for the Americans following an agreement reached in June with Bulgaria. That country would be a bridgehead for the second route envisioned in the construction plan, which would see a second leg of the pipeline bring gas directly to the heart of Central Europe. It is a plan strongly supported by the pro-Russian government in Sofia, and could be in place as soon as 2020, according to the Russian company Gazprom. It also has the backing of Austria, which has equally strong links to the Kremlin.

This could be disastrous for Washington, given its efforts to build an anti-Russian economic axis dependent on American supplies of gas, using the bloc of Visegrad Group countries led by Hungary. This explains why Trump’s next move, in exchange for relief from the economic reprisals, could be a request to the Turkish president to abandon the pipeline and embark on a more Atlantic-centric energy strategy. An example could be Erdogan’s support for plans for the Southern Gas Corridor, which has the backing of Brussels and Washington. Despite Putin and Erdogan having both confirmed a mutual interest in expanding their joint energy plans, the Turkish Stream is already turning out to be a weak link and may become the pawn that Ankara could be forced to sacrifice for its own economic stability.

Editor’s note: *The original quote, accurately translated, could not be verified. On July 26, 2018, Rick Perry said that Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream were not “commercially viable,” and that they had been designed to fulfill Russia’s goal to become “the sole supplier of energy for the European Union.”