Kim and Trump Back at Square One

The second summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un should take place soon. It will be one of the most important international events of the year, but also – most importantly – it will be the moment of truth.

When Donald Trump declared that he had “solved” the North Korean problem after the first summit in June of last year, he lied. Kim Jong Un’s traditional televised New Year’s speech last week demonstrated this. And Kim’s visit to China, which ended yesterday, leads one to believe that the situation is about to get more complicated for Washington.

Tensions have dropped down a notch, true, and that’s excellent news. Trump no longer mentions fire and fury. North Korea no longer relies on provocation. They haven’t conducted any new nuclear tests and have stopped missile testing.

But in terms of the country’s complete and total verifiable denuclearization as demanded by Washington, the impasse persists. However, in the eyes of the White House, denuclearization is essential.

When the North Korean despot spoke last week, he delivered a serious warning to Washington. He said that if America “does not keep the promise it made in the eyes of the world, and out of miscalculation of our people’s patience, it attempts to unilaterally enforce something upon us and persists in imposing sanctions and pressure,” that cooperation would stop.

In America, Kim’s trip to China was immediately construed to mean that the two countries are back at square one. Rightly so. In fact, nothing has truly changed since the first summit as far as North Korean nuclear ambitions are concerned.

The rot had set in even before this initial meeting. Basically, Kim wants sanctions to be reduced before beginning to dismantle his nuclear arsenal, while Trump demands denuclearization before considering ending sanctions.

The status quo is untenable and 2019 will likely be decisive. The challenge is still colossal, particularly since during recent months, a reconciliation – a substantial one − has been reached between North Korea, South Korea and China. An expert in this region, Paul Evans from the University of British Columbia, now speaks of these three countries as forming the “axis of action.”*

This major development changes the dynamic for Washington. The Americans had a better chance of persuading the other actors involved to adopt a hard line with North Korea when the country was isolated and aggressive. Now, that’s less and less the case.

The deteriorating relationship between Washington and Beijing will make Trump’s task all the more delicate. We can expect that China’s president, to whom Kim just paid a visit (he left China yesterday, Jan. 9, and it’s not a coincidence), will probably want to utilize his influence on Pyongyang as a means of bartering.

The challenge posed by the Washington government’s paralysis is nothing next to what awaits Trump this year concerning North Korea. Are you wondering how the author of “The Art of the Deal” will manage to convince Kim to renounce his nuclear ambitions? So are we.

*Editor’s note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.