Trump’s Luck

Donald Trump is certainly not a statesman like his predecessors, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan, who won World War II and the Cold War respectively. Nor does he belong among true politicians like Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. He has not had a career in public service, like Jimmy Carter or George H.W. Bush. And yet, there he is, in the Oval Office, embroiled in scandal after scandal, tussle after tussle, clash after clash. It goes without saying that the presidency of the United States cannot be a bed of roses – if anything, it is a bed of thorns – but with Trump, it has become a boxing ring, and the president seems eager for new fights and new opponents.

It appears to be his style to consistently seek the center of controversy, whomever it is with and whatever it is about. This is why I have little faith in the initiative that a significant portion of the Democratic Party has taken to launch an impeachment inquiry into Trump. The Democrats have been trying to do this almost since the beginning of his four-year term, and now they have the complicated Ukraine affair as a new justification. I use the term “complicated” because the details of this incident are not easy to understand, as was the case with Watergate, which culminated in Nixon’s resignation, but also because Sen. and former Vice President Joe Biden, the leading presidential candidate, may also be implicated in the confusion.

According to Trump’s lawyer and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, this is a witch hunt, inherently worse than the one carried out against the witches of Salem. Giuliani is a terrible lawyer, and to have him handling the defense or the prosecution, or both at the same time, is far from insignificant. The theory taking shape is that the Ukraine affair is an excuse for the real objective, which is to remove Trump from the White House, whatever it takes. There is no denying that this idea will have many supporters, but it is unlikely that the majority of American people will agree, much less be enthusiastic about the development. That is, unless there are more surprises in store and Trump’s situation becomes indefensible. But, so far, this has not happened.

Additionally, if Trump were ousted, the most likely candidate to represent the Republican Party would be Mike Pence, who would go from being vice president to serving as president, and, as I have said, probably to being the Republican presidential candidate. He lacks the pizzazz that Trump possesses, but his image as a serious man, a conservative without extremist tendencies, and as a good governor who is respected on both sides of the political aisle could make him a contender who would be more difficult to defeat than Trump himself. This is all mere speculation, but in a political dynamic as dizzying as that of Washington, it is difficult, or rather impossible, to make any firm predictions. There is ample room, therefore, for speculation like this.

The purpose of this article is not to assess Trump’s domestic or foreign policy, which is not easy to do, particularly with respect to international relations. But, apparently, the fight sought by the Democratic congressional leadership, spearheaded by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, may benefit Trump’s reelection campaign. Or it may lead to the Pence’s election. Either way, it could boomerang for the Democrats. Because one cannot underestimate Trump’s popularity, the inquiry is more likely to benefit Trump’s reelection campaign. Everything about Trump leads to controversy, except the fact that he has no shortage of luck.