Spotlight on Trump

There is little certainty about what will characterize the last leg of Donald Trump’s current term as president of the United States, especially now that the House of Representatives has formally opened an impeachment investigation in pursuit of a possible Senate trial. Its justification stems from crimes that the president might have committed by pressuring his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to investigate Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. New revelations also suggest Trump may have acted to obtain the Ukrainian government’s admission that it colluded with the Democratic Party to influence the 2016 elections. This is a historical event in that only three leaders of the U.S. have been subjected to the impeachment process; while Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson were acquitted by the Senate, Richard Nixon resigned from office shortly before having to appear before the Senate.

In the midst of uncertainty regarding the outcome of this fourth impeachment inquiry, one thing hardly stops: the president’s constant appearance in the media. This phase of the inquiry guarantees that all spotlights rest on the man in the Oval Office, and this is a key factor. Another factor, closely related to the first, is that the investigation will take place in tandem with Trump’s presidential campaign. Inevitably, what happens during the campaign will be echoed powerfully in the House’s work and vice versa. Thus, finding out the truth about Trump’s conduct and whether he committed an act for which he deserves to be removed from office is not all that is at stake: the identity of the Democratic presidential nominee, the tone Trump adopts in future months, the agenda of the campaign and the amount of social polarization, already at a critical level, will be affected.

And the mere fact that Democratic members of the House of Representatives have decided to initiate the process is already a consequence of the power held by less moderate factions within the House. This became apparent when the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who was for a long time reluctant to take this path precisely because of the visibility it would give Trump in election months, finally gave in. Behind her decision is the force that has taken over the candidacies of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, whose positions are more extreme than Biden’s.

It is, therefore, a risky bet for the Democrats, who played this card with the confidence that already familiar testimony would shake public opinion, generating a climate that could advance their candidates. But this has not happened, at least not yet. The most recent polls indicate that only 49% of voters are in favor of Trump being tried by the Senate, while 47% do not believe there is sufficient evidence. In order for the so-called impeachment to gain traction, much more popular support is required.

Many agree that the crux of the matter is that Trump’s possible pressure on his counterpart to make a decision for his benefit is a behavior that, on paper, would allow the Senate to remove him from office, while low unemployment and the a positive economy are enough to lower the ethical and moral standards of millions of Americans, especially Republicans.

The turn of events will largely depend on the testimony of those called before the House, which will be broadcast on television. There are enormous expectations for what former National Security Advisor John Bolton could say if summoned; he was aware of everything that happened in the relationship with Ukraine and abruptly left the government in the wake of Trump’s anger with his actions. This list of witnesses also includes Rudolph Giuliani, the former mayor of New York and now the president’s lawyer.

For now, Trump is fully aware of the cards he has to play, such as unveiling a possible upcoming trade agreement with China. He knows that he will now have a bigger platform upon which to deny or minimize the Ukrainian incident, while repeatedly highlighting the figures in his favor, not forgetting, as Trump has characteristically done, to present himself as a victim. And many on the street care more about what happens to their pocketbooks than they do about the morality of the president’s behavior. They are not only capable of entering the realm of conspiracies and post-truths, but also of seeing shades of gray when assessing Trump’s morality.