How Putin Can Help Trump’s Reelection Bid

In the run-up to the November election, Donald Trump may announce that he is withdrawing the United States from NATO, according to former National Security Advisor John Bolton. Since his dismissal from the White House, Bolton has made a number of explosive claims about Trump, but this one is the most scandalous yet. However, Bolton’s logic itself is interesting regardless of the unlikelihood of his claims.

He believes that, in the almost three months left before the election, it is very likely that Trump will pull an “October surprise” closer to the election that is capable of influencing the election results.

“With three months still to go before the election, this is an eternity from the point of view of American politics. He might decide to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan. Or announce his withdrawal from NATO,” Bolton told La Razon in an exclusive interview.

Another possible ace up Trump’s sleeve, according to Bolton, could be a fourth summit with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un, where they could declare peace on the Korean Peninsula and put an end to Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program.

All three “surprises” sketched out by Bolton are unrealistic. Although Trump hinted at the possibility of leaving NATO, this was merely a way to pressure European allies to increase defense spending. Although the U.S. could do without a NATO pact in Trump’s ideal worldview, he is definitely not going to withdraw the U.S. from it. Needless to say, Congress would block such an attempt anyway.

A meeting with Kim is technically impossible, because, after three summits, the U.S. did not agree to ease sanctions on North Korea. Pyongyang considered such an approach as absolutely frivolous and will simply not negotiate with Trump.

The withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan within a 14-month span was already announced in March, following an agreement with the Taliban. While the timing of the withdrawal may change depending on the intra-Afghan negotiations, the troops are already leaving. Recently, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the number of troops has already been cut in half, with a full withdrawal to be carried out by May 2021. It has been reported that only 4,000 troops are set to remain by November, although the Taliban said it would welcome a full withdrawal before the election. However, fully retreating that early could risk a potential terrorist attack in Kabul against Americans that Trump would have to deal with. Therefore, Trump cannot use Afghanistan to sway the election.

However, despite these unrealistic options, the very idea of an “October surprise” is very plausible. But how else can Trump surprise us on the foreign policy front?

Oddly enough, Trump is thinking about meeting with Vladimir Putin. This seems crazy. Trump has been accused of having links to Russian for four years, and he wants to meet with the Russian president right before the election?

However, the “Russiagate” scandal in the hands of the Democrats has long ceased to work. On the contrary, Trump is starting to spin it as a conspiracy against him. As such, he is trying to shed light on how the previous administration and the intelligence agencies fabricated the Trump-Russia case. This fall, various members of the Barack Obama administration will be called to testify at Senate hearings to explain on whose orders they organized the conspiracy. Therefore, public attention will shift from Trump’s mythical Russian friends to his very real American enemies in Washington.

With that, the Democrats will no longer be able to orchestrate the usual hysteria about Trump’s connections to Putin. And the meeting with Putin itself would be conceived as a breakthrough.

Information about the meeting was leaked to NBC News. According to the report, Trump told his aides he wants to meet with Putin before the presidential election. Those familiar with the discussions say that “the goal of a summit would be for the two leaders to announce progress towards a new nuclear arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia … One option under consideration is for the two leaders to sign a blueprint for a way forward in negotiations on extending New START, a nuclear arms control treaty between the U.S. and Russia that expires next year.”

According to NBC’s sources, “Trump sees a summit as an opportunity to be presidential and demonstrate he’s able to negotiate agreements.” Moreover, “administration officials have explored various times and locations for another Trump-Putin summit, including potentially next month in New York.”

The White House promptly denied this report. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien said, “We’re not doing a meeting with Putin in the United States.” While Trump did not ask for a meeting with Putin, the adviser added, “But at some time we’d love to have Putin come here to sign a terrific arms control deal that protects Americans and protects Russians.” O’Brien further said that the U.S. is interested in having better relations with Russia. “We’d like to see that happen. We’d like to have good relations with Russia, but that’s up to the Russians.”

However, O’Brien’s denial should not be taken too literally, as the “October surprise” is to be served directly before the election. And Trump could not come up with anything more spectacular.

Trump and Putin could agree to extend New START – a potential bombshell, because right now the treaty’s renewal seems extremely unlikely. This would be the answer to the Democrats, who (as well as individual Republicans) are in favor of extending the treaty and deem Trump’s inaction over the matter irresponsible.

The treaty’s extension is in the interests of both the U.S and Russia, but if Moscow has long offered to do this, Washington has stubbornly insisted on including China in the negotiations, a request that Moscow initially rejected. Only recently did the U.S. finally agree to the negotiations, the first round of which is set to take place in Vienna.

Assuming U.S. cooperation, the extension’s general principles could be agreed on by November, making it an excellent precedent for a meeting between the presidents who have not yet met this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

If not for the pandemic, the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council could have met in September, as per the widely supported initiative put forward in January by Putin. Even after the outbreak of the pandemic, a meeting in New York in September for the anniversary session of the U.N. General Assembly was still set to go ahead. However, the aggravation of relations between the U.S. and China (due to the Trump administration’s anti-Chinese rhetoric) made Xi Jinping’s visit almost impossible.

At the same time, Putin recently suggested holding a virtual meeting of the Big Five in the near future to discuss the deteriorating situation around the Iran nuclear deal (due to the United States). The leaders of Germany, the country holding the EU presidency, and Iran would also join the meeting. Trump refused, because given his tough anti-Iranian stance, he would clearly be in the minority. At this point, he absolutely cannot afford such a demonstration of U.S. isolation. “I think we will wait until after the election [for such a meeting],” Trump said. “Iran wants me to lose [in November’s election] so badly.”

All attempts to arrange a Big Five meeting have failed, and not just because of Trump. Even the Group of Seven summit of major industrial nations is unlikely to take place this year. First, it was moved from the summer to the fall, and then Angela Merkel decided against the September trip to the U.S. Officially, she declined due to the pandemic. More likely, she is waiting for Trump’s defeat. In addition, Trump stubbornly continues to talk about his desire to invite India, South Korea, Australia and Russia to the G-7 summit. However, Putin is not going to participate in such a meeting, and most of the G-7 countries do not want Russia back. Now, Trump is not going to hold the G-7 meeting until after the election, making it clear that it will only take place if he wins and his victory is recognized by the Democrats and other G-7 members.

November’s Group of 20 meeting in Saudi Arabia of industrial and emerging market nations is still in question. Whether it goes ahead depends not only on the result of the election, but also on the pandemic. Most likely, however, world leaders will decide to meet in person by then. As such, the G-20 meeting will become the most unusual summit in the most extraordinary year of modern history. While everything points to Trump’s reelection, whether he manages to defend the win as fair is unpredictable. If he does, then he will be at center stage in Riyadh. All the leaders will congratulate him. Some – with a sense of deep dissatisfaction, others, sincerely. Among the latter will be Putin, and, unlike the fictional Russian interference in 2016, in 2020 Putin can really help Trump win.