US ‘Returns,’ but the World Trade Organization Still Faces a Test

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 19 February 2021
by He Weiwen (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Liza Roberts. Edited by Patricia Simoni.
The newly appointed director-general of the World Trade Organization has been announced as Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, of Nigeria. WTO General Council Chairman David Walker called it a historic development, not only because it is the first time that the director-general is of African descent and not only because she is a woman, but because through the unremitting efforts of the majority of members, the WTO has overcome unprecedented difficulties in selecting the director-general.

Since the resignation of Roberto Azevedo in early August of last year, the WTO has been without a leader. When former United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer stepped down in January, he called the WTO a “failed organization.” Now that America is "back," a new WTO director-general has been selected, bringing new hope to an organization that is in a difficult situation and facing an arduous mission. However, there remain serious challenges surrounding the effectiveness of the WTO and how to move forward with reforms. After Iweala takes office on March 1, the WTO has four urgent missions.

The first is to work closely with the World Health Organization to rapidly accelerate the global supply and free trade of COVID-19 vaccines and other medical supplies. Controlling and overcoming the pandemic as soon as possible is the most urgent task facing society. One fundamental way to achieve this is to ensure the supply and fair distribution of vaccines.

According to estimates by health experts at McKinsey Consulting, based on current progress, most people in developed countries can be vaccinated by the third quarter of 2021. But the vaccination rate in developing and low income countries will still be less than 20% by the end of 2021. High income countries, which make up 16% of the global population, control 60% of the world’s vaccines, while more than 130 developing and low income countries, which account for one-third or more of the global population, have not received any vaccine at all. According to WTO estimates, if vaccines are effectively supplied and patients are effectively treated, the global gross domestic product could accelerate recovery by 1% to 2% in 2021, and growth in world trade could accelerate by 3%. This not only requires efforts to promote cooperation among countries and provide assistance to poor countries, but it requires breaking governmental restrictions and protectionism regarding the trade of vaccines and medical equipment. Iweala serves two roles simultaneously: chairman of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization, and the director-general of the WTO. She has access to a wide array of resources. Therefore, The WTO needs to seize the moment to quickly digest the situation, increase vaccine supply, reduce trade restrictions and promote fair distribution.

The second mission is to work hard to accelerate the recovery of the global economy and trade. According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund last month, the global economy shrank by 3.5% in 2020, and trade of goods and services fell by 9.6%, both the worst recessions since World War II. It is estimated that in 2021 there will be rebounds of 5.5% and 8.1% respectively, but global trade still will not return to its pre-pandemic level. In order to speed up recovery, countries need to continuously reduce trade restrictions to ensure smooth global supply chains. This requires the WTO to promote and coordinate the joint efforts of all members.

The third mission is to restore the normal operations of the WTO as soon as possible, part of which is the urgent need to resume the selection of appeal judges so as to resume operations of the Appellate Body. Because the Donald Trump administration forcibly obstructed the selection of justices with a series of unilateral measures that violated WTO rules, the Appellate Body has been paralyzed since December 2019. The WTO has no enforcement power, and multilateral trade rules are just empty words. This is basically equivalent to keeping traffic laws but abolishing all traffic police, so drivers can violate the regulations at will without penalty.

The fourth mission is to hold the 12th Ministerial Conference in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, to reaffirm the maintenance of the multilateral trade system, maintain the central position of the WTO and initiate WTO reforms. This will be a major event related to the vitality of the WTO in a new era. In light of the continuous development of unilateralism and protectionism since the pandemic, the level of development and the interests and demands of WTO members vary greatly. Questions remain over how to best design the purpose and agenda of the conference and resolutely support multilateralism, as well as how to find common ground among the 164 members in a time of reform for the WTO and what difference it will make. All of this seems extremely urgent and extremely severe.

In the discourse of Western media, the WTO is facing another serious challenge: The WTO has failed to regulate certain serious economic violations in China. They say the Joe Biden administration shares the same concerns. One example is that Harvard Law Professor Mark Wu was appointed a senior consultant to the office of U.S. trade representative in early February; he has previously written articles on the limitations of the WTO.

However, all 164 members of the WTO are equal, not pitted against any one country, and no major country can issue orders in the WTO. After the WHO expert group published a report on its investigation of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the U.S., which claimed it would return to the WHO, asked the organization to adhere to the “highest standard” that the U.S. identified — calling into question the work being done by the WHO. This undoubtedly has caused many to worry about the prospects of the WTO. If returning to multilateralism actually means being in command of all that is multilateral, then the multilateral trading system will continue to face great difficulties.

The multilateralism represented by the WTO encompasses the whole world and represents the common interests of all members. All members must participate in the formulation and examination of all rules and make decisions based on the principle of consensus. It is not for just some members to jointly formulate “rules” and use this standard to regulate the organization or another group of members. If this were the case, it would be “selective multilateralism,” which completely violates the core essence of the WTO as a multilateral trading system.

Firmly supporting the work of the new director-general and striving to meet all the serious challenges at hand requires the coordinated efforts of all 164 members of the WTO. The Biden administration has already made it clear that it will return to multilateralism and reject “America First” ideology. We need to see action. All unilateral tariffs and trade restrictions that violate WTO rules and the multilateral system should be removed as soon as possible. The Appellate Body needs to be restored as soon as possible. Whether these two points can be achieved quickly is a big test for all WTO members.


世贸组织新任总干事人选已经宣布,为尼日利亚裔伊韦阿拉博士,世贸组织总理事会主席戴维·沃尔克称此事“创造了历史”。这不仅因为世贸组织总干事是第一次由非洲裔担任,且由女性担任,而且因为经过广大成员的不懈努力,终于战胜了总干事遴选中未曾有过的空前困难。

在阿泽维多去年8月提前离职后,世贸组织一直处于无领导状态。美国前贸易代表莱特希泽1月卸任的时候曾称,世贸组织“基本上已经失败了”。如今美国已经“回归”,世贸组织新任总干事已经产生,为处于困境,又面临艰巨使命的世贸组织带来新的希望。只是,围绕世贸组织有效性、以及世贸组织改革如何推进等严峻挑战依然存在。在伊韦阿拉3月1日上任后,世贸组织迫在眉睫的使命有四个。

第一是,与世卫组织密切合作,迅速加快疫苗和其他医护物资的全球供应和贸易畅通。尽快控制并战胜疫情是当前人类社会面临的最紧迫任务。一个根本途径是疫苗的供应和公平分配。

据麦肯锡咨询公司卫生专家估计,按目前进度,大多数发达国家民众到2021年三季度可以接种疫苗,但发展中国家、低收入国家到2021年底接种率仍将不足20%。占世界人口16%的高收入国家拥有世界疫苗资源60%,而占世界人口1/3以上的130多个发展中国家及低收入国家尚未得到任何疫苗。据世贸组织估计,如果疫苗得到有效供应,且患者得到有效医治,2021年全球GDP复苏能够加快1至2个百分点,世界贸易增长能够加快3个百分点。这既需要努力推动各国合作,为穷国提供援助,又需要打破疫苗和医护产品贸易中的政府限制和保护主义。伊韦阿拉是双肩挑干部,同时兼任全球疫苗免疫联盟理事会主席和世贸组织总干事,具有十分广泛的资源。因此,世贸组织需要抓紧时间,迅速打开局面,增加疫苗供应量,减少贸易限制,促进公平分配。

第二个使命是努力促进世界经济和贸易加快复苏。据国际货币基金组织上月估计,2020年世界经济下降了3.5%,世界商品和服务贸易下降9.6%,均系二战后最严重的衰退。估计2021年将分别回升5.5%和8.1%,但世界贸易仍然不能恢复到疫情前水平。为了加快复苏,需要各国不断减少贸易限制,确保全球供应链畅通。这需要世贸组织推动和协调所有成员共同努力。

第三个使命是尽快使世贸组织恢复正常运行,其中迫切的是尽快恢复上诉大法官遴选,从而恢复上诉机构运行。由于特朗普政府为了自己一系列违反世贸规则的单边措施不受约束,强行阻挠继任大法官遴选,致使上诉机构自2019年12月起陷入瘫痪,世贸组织没有执行力,多边贸易规则形同空文。这相当于虽有交通法规,但废除所有交通警,司机可以任意违章而不受处罚。

第四个使命是开好将在哈萨克斯坦努尔苏丹举行的第十二次部长会议,重申维护多边贸易体制,维护世贸组织的中心地位,并启动世贸组织改革。这将是关系到世贸组织新时期生命力的一件大事。鉴于疫情以来单边主义和保护主义继续发展,世贸组织广大成员发展水平和利益诉求差异很大,如何正确设计大会宗旨和议程,坚决维护多边主义;如何在世贸组织改革中寻求164个成员的共同点,而又有所作为。这一切,显得异常紧迫,异常严峻。

在西方媒体的论述中,世贸组织面临的严峻挑战还有一个,即“世贸组织未能对中国某些严重的经济违法行为进行规制”。他们称,拜登政府对此也有同样的担心,例证之一即是哈佛大学法学院教授伍人英2月初被任命为贸易代表办公室高级顾问,他曾经撰写过世贸组织局限性的文章。

然而,WTO所有164个成员都是平等的,不是针对某一个国家,也不能由哪个大国对世贸组织发号施令。世卫组织专家组对武汉病毒所考察做出报告后,声称将重返世卫组织的美国居然要求世卫组织坚持他们认定的所谓“最高标准”,并对世卫组织正在进行的相关工作表示质疑。这不得不引起人们对世贸组织前景的担忧。如果“回归多边”的含义是指挥多边,多边贸易体制仍将面临很大困难。

WTO代表的多边主义是覆盖全球的,代表所有成员的共同利益。所有规则的制定和检查都必须所有成员共同参与,以一致同意原则做出决定。而不能仅仅由一部分成员自相联合制定“规则”,并以此为标准,对另一个或另一部分成员进行规制。如果那样,就是“选择性多边主义”,完全违背世贸组织为核心的多边贸易体制的精髓。

坚定支持新总干事的工作,努力应对所有严峻挑战,需要世贸组织所有164个成员同心协力。拜登政府已经明确表示回归多边主义,摈弃“美国第一”。我们需要看到行动。所有违背世贸规则,违反多边体制的单边关税和单边限制,都应尽快取消。上诉机构需要尽快恢复。能否尽快做到这两点,是对所有世贸组织成员的大考。
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