Has the Democratic Progressive Party Found Its Golden Branch of Hope? Misjudgment Is More Dangerous than Placing a Wrong Bet

Published in UDN
(Taiwan) on 8 March 2021
by Yixin Chen (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Pinyu Hwang. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
Three days ago, the Joe Biden administration released its "Interim National Security Strategy Guidance," emphasizing that the United States will support Taiwan as a democratic country and economic and security partner. The news came like a golden branch of hope to Democratic Progressive Party supporters, who had been depressed for the past several months; they have completely forgotten about the wrong bet they had placed, as though possessed, for almost the entirety of last year.

What's interesting to note is that Executive Yuan President Su Tseng-chang also acknowledged in an interview that people had been ridiculing the government for placing the wrong bet. Clearly unimpressed with Su's wry words, Chao Shao-kang* countered that "the DPP bet on Donald Trump in the first place ― is placing a wrong bet something to be happy about?"

It has not been uncommon for Taiwan to put its eggs in the wrong basket in regard to a U.S. election. In the 1948 election, Chiang Kai-shek placed his bets on Republican Thomas E. Dewey, but Democrat Harry Truman won big. Because Chiang had been so supportive of Dewey, the relationship between the Truman administration and the Chiang administration was not very cordial. But after the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950, the United States still sent the Seventh Fleet to patrol the Taiwan Strait.

As we all know, last year, Tsai Ing-wen mobilized the DPP in support of Trump, and many TV shows were cheering for Trump for several days straight, as if Taiwan were actually participating in the U.S. presidential election.

Last year, Tsai played favorites among the two parties' congressional candidates, but Biden is now demonstrating his generosity, still regarding Taiwan as a key priority for U.S. support. In the "Interim Guidance," the White House declares: "We will support Taiwan, a leading democracy and a critical economic and security partner, in line with longstanding American commitments."

However, while the Tsai administration may be complacent, it should not forget, let alone misjudge the potential direction in which U.S.-China relations may be headed. First of all, since this is a provisional guide, there will certainly be an enhanced version of this guide in the future; it is too early to say whether there will be adjustments or changes in its contents.

Second, U.S.-China relations will take time to settle, and in general it may take as long as two years, as during the Reagan presidency, from an intention to resume diplomatic relations with Taiwan prior to the election to the signing of the "August 17 Communiqué" with China. It may also take as little as a year, just as it did with George W. Bush first declaring that the president wished to defend Taiwan, then Vice President Dick Cheney changing the words to say that the U.S. would “assist” Taiwan in defending itself and the lines of alliance finally transforming into a joint U.S.-China effort to fight terrorism.

The U.S. and China have just now entered into a period of transition; future developments will involve interactions with many variables that are difficult to predict.

Moreover, while the White House's "Interim Guidance" openly supports Taiwan, it still does so under the "One China" framework. In other words, no matter how friendly the U.S. may seem to Taiwan, in the end it still has its own national interests at heart. Once the present administration discovers that the "exchange" between U.S. and Chinese interests is worth more than any exchange between the U.S. and Taiwan, the situation may become volatile.

Last, as the international situation is changing rapidly, we cannot become complacent with the status quo, let alone make misjudgments under optimistic premises.

*Translator’s Note: Chao Shao-kang is a Taiwanese media personality and politician.


拜登政府三日公布「國家安全戰略暫行指南」強調美國將支持台灣這個民主國家與經濟安全夥伴。消息傳來,鬱卒了好幾個月的綠營支持者突然覺得又找到了春天,渾然忘了去年幾乎整整一年他們像中了邪一樣押錯寶的事實。

有意思的是,行政院長蘇貞昌還在受訪時表示,過去有人譏笑政府押錯寶。趙少康對蘇貞昌的冷言冷語顯然不以為然,反嗆「民進黨當初就是押了川普,押錯寶還高興嗎?」

台灣在美國大選押錯寶可說屢見不鮮。1948年美國大選,蔣中正將寶全押在共和黨的杜威博士,結果民主黨的杜魯門大勝。由於老蔣對杜威的支持動作太大,因此杜魯門政府與蔣中正政府關係一直不太融洽,但韓戰1950年爆發後,美國還是派遣第七艦隊廵弋台灣海峽。

盡人皆知 ,蔡英文在去年發動綠營支持川普,連許多電視節目都連日為川普打氣,好像台灣自己也在選美國總統一樣。

蔡英文在去年對美國國會兩黨議員候選人有大小眼,好在拜登「心胸寬大」,仍將台灣視為美國支持的重點對象。在「暫行指南」中,白宮說;「我們將支持台灣這個主要民主國家和一直履行對美國承諾的經濟與安全夥伴 。」

不過,蔡政府在「得意」之餘,也不要「忘形」,更不要誤判美中兩國關係的可能走向。首先,既然是「暫行」指南,未來當然還有「進階版」指南,內容是否會出現調整或變化,現在尚言之過早。

其次, 美中關係需要時間磨合,通常多則兩年,如雷根總統時期,從選前要和我國復交到與中國簽訂「八一七公報」;少則一年不到,如小布希說總統要防衛台灣到副總統錢尼改口只是協防台灣防衛自己,後來更轉變為美中聯手反恐。

美中現在剛進入磨合期不久,未來發展涉及許多變數的互動,難以逆料。

第三,白宮在「暫行指南」雖明確支持台灣,但仍是在「一個中國」框架之下。易言之,美國再怎麼對台灣友善,但還是以自己的國家利益為重。一旦華府發現美中利益的「交換」關係大於美台之間的交換關係,就可能出現波動起伏。

最後,國際情勢瞬息萬變,千萬不能滿足於現狀,更不能在樂觀的情況之下做出誤判。
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