Will the Joint Statement by the P5 Usher in a New Era of Cooperative Governance by the World’s Most Powerful Nations?

Published in Want Daily
(Taiwan) on 9 January 2022
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Eric Berman. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
After several months of deliberation, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, the P5, released the Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear-Weapon States on Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding Arms Races. The statement reads: "The People's Republic of China, the French Republic, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America consider the avoidance of war between Nuclear-Weapon States and the reduction of strategic risks as our foremost responsibilities." The countries also emphasized, "a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought." The joint statement isn't contractually binding. Still, because of this diplomatic accomplishment, future generations may remember 2021 as the year humankind narrowly avoided a world war — and not just as the year the world was devastated by COVID-19.

‘Controlling Nuclear Weapons and Avoiding War’

The book "Peril," written by The Washington Post's associate editor Bob Woodward and political reporter Robert Costa, reveals exclusive details about President Donald Trump's final days in office. As Trump's term approached its slated end date, Gen. Mark Milley, America's highest-ranking military officer, carefully monitored America's nuclear stockpile and twice made secret calls to China's military. The general hoped to avoid a situation in which an out-of-control Trump recklessly waged an attack on China.

The year 2021 was indeed one of turmoil. At the beginning of October, an international fleet of naval ships was notably present in the Western Pacific. Three aircraft carriers — belonging to the United States and the United Kingdom — and 17 warships from Japan, Canada, New Zealand and the Netherlands conducted six-nation joint military exercises in the Philippine Sea and Okinawa's territorial waters. The People's Liberation Army also dispatched more than 150 sorties — squadrons comprised of military planes, such as fighter jets and maritime patrol aircraft — that entered the southwest corner of Taiwan's air defense identification zone. Soon after, the USS Connecticut, an American nuclear-powered submarine, collided with an unknown object while on a mission in the South China Sea.* In Europe last June, a British warship sailing on the Black Sea near the Crimean peninsula was driven away by Russian military forces that went so far as to open fire on the British vessel.** At year's end, when Russia deployed more than 100,000 troops to its border with Ukraine, the fires of war could have ignited at any moment.

In 2021, China, America and Russia, three of the world's most powerful nations, didn't necessarily want to go to war; however, these countries were on the brink of it as they pressured and probed their geopolitical adversaries. Like expert fighters, they have already sized up their opponents from a distance; they roughly know their rivals' strengths and weaknesses, as well as their intentions. Now they can sit down together and partition the globe among themselves. By releasing this joint statement, these five primary nuclear powers, in their capacities as permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, offer a reminder to the rest of the world. With the unique privilege of U.N. Security Council veto power and the "big stick" of nuclear weaponry, these five countries are determined to serve as the pillars of world order in the 21st century.

It is telling that the P5 nations chose to sign and release the joint statement before the upcoming U.N. Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT Review Conference), which occurs only once every five years. Their actions and choice of timing show they are determined to cooperate on the issue of nuclear nonproliferation. China's vice minister of Foreign Affairs, Ma Zhaoxu, weighed in on the importance of the statement. He said that the five countries should take the joint statement as their new starting point, promote mutual trust, increase cooperation and endeavor to establish widespread and lasting peace in the world.

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, originally signed in 1968, is a pact between non-nuclear powers and the five recognized nuclear powers. To date, 191 countries have joined the agreement. It was intended to prevent nuclear proliferation and recognized the P5's possession of nuclear weapons as legitimate. A further three countries that have nuclear weapons — India, Pakistan and Israel — have refused to sign the treaty. North Korea, another country with nuclear weapons, has even denounced the agreement. The NPT Review Conference was originally scheduled for this month; however, it was postponed due to several factors, including the omicron variant outbreak.

‘Preparing for America's Abdication’

The joint statement's chance at success is closely tied to China and Russia's advances in nuclear projectile technology. Seeing the progress of its rivals, the U.S. recognizes the need to cooperate with other nuclear powers on the issues of the development, use and control of nuclear weapons. America has its reasons for needing to return to the Iran nuclear deal negotiations. Most notably, President Joe Biden has been unable to accomplish anything significant in domestic or foreign affairs. He desperately needs a foreign policy accomplishment to save his slumping poll numbers and reinvigorate the Democratic Party's currently anemic election hopes. While Biden works to achieve his personal goals and his party's political goals, the Iran nuclear deal negotiations will test the strength of the P5's joint statement.

Meaningful progress on the nuclear deal would greatly benefit Iran. The country hopes to free itself from the stranglehold of sanctions as soon as possible; its economy is in dire straits, and its influence on Shiite Muslims in the region continues to wane. If the government fails to reach an agreement on the nuclear deal, the nation's circumstances will worsen. The Iranian government would face intense domestic backlash — possibly even a social uprising — as well as condemnation and increased pressure from the international community. The joint statement puts significant pressure on Iran to make meaningful concessions and bring America back to the negotiating table. The move by the P5 may also put heat on North Korea. On Jan. 6, the Korean Central News Agency, North Korea's state-run media, reported that the country's Academy of National Defense Science conducted a hypersonic missile test the previous day. This move was prompted by the joint statement released by the P5.

At first glance, U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia relations appear to be defined by mutual antagonism; outwardly, the countries seem to be enemies as incompatible as fire and water. But in reality, there is plenty of room for cooperation in the realm of international governance, and these nations that appear to be geopolitical adversaries can actually benefit one another. If the P5 countries sincerely wish to tackle the issue of the use and proliferation of nuclear weapons, that itself is, at the very least, a sign of peace.

During the Cold War that followed World War II, the United States and the Soviet Union — at the time, the world's two nuclear superpowers — exercised restraint and never used nuclear weapons against each other. By doing so, they avoided a thoroughly devastating military conflict. Although various proxy wars were fought during this period, the U.S. and USSR maintained nearly 50 years of relative peace. This joint statement may very well influence the future world order, perhaps steering it toward the spirit of cooperative governance among the world's great powers that existed after World War II and fueled the founding of the U.N. This statement may also pave the way toward a world where America is no longer the sole dominant superpower. As Taiwan is directly on the front line of the conflict between the U.S. and China, it is even more critical that the Taiwanese precisely understand changes in the overall geopolitical climate and respond accordingly.

*Translator's Note: It was later confirmed that the USS Connecticut collided with an underwater mountain.

**Translator's Note: According to the BBC, the British warship HMS Defender passed south of Crimea, an area Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. The annexation of the Crimean peninsula has not been internationally recognized.


旺報社評》五國聯合聲明 大國共治新時代
20:23
2022/01/09
言論 
主筆室
社評

中、俄、美、英、法5個聯合國常任理事國,也是核武大國,經過數月協商後發布《聯合聲明》,強調核戰爭打不贏也打不得,避免核武器國家間爆發戰爭和減少戰略風險是5國的首要責任。《聯合聲明》雖然不具約束力,但歷史也許將記載,2021年人類除了經歷新冠疫情肆虐外,也可能和世界大戰擦身而過。

“管控核武避免戰爭”

美國《華盛頓郵報》副總編輯伍華德與政治記者柯斯塔合寫的《危急關頭》一書獨家揭露:在川普總統任期尾聲,美國最高軍事將領米利為避免川普失控攻打中國,曾兩度密電解放軍,還緊盯核武的狀態。

2021年確實風雲詭譎,10月初美軍和英軍共3艘航空母艦,與17艘來自日本、加拿大、紐西蘭、荷蘭海軍的軍艦,先後在沖繩海域與菲律賓海進行6國聯合軍演。解放軍也出動超過150架次戰鬥機、反潛機等各型軍機組成的機隊,出海到台灣防空識別區西南角。不久又傳出美國核子潛艦康乃狄克號在南海執行任務時,撞上不明物體。去年6月,俄羅斯為了驅逐在克里米亞海域出沒的英國軍艦不惜開火。年底俄羅斯在與烏克蘭邊界陳兵10餘萬,戰爭有一觸即發的可能。

整個來說,2021年中、美、俄3大國未必真的想一戰,但都在進行戰爭邊緣的施壓與試探。既然經過高手過招,隔空比畫一番後,已略知對方虛實與意圖,就可以坐下來畫分天下。5核武大國以聯合國5個常任理事國名義發表共同聲明,是在提醒其他國家,這5個擁有聯合國否決權特權及核武大棒的國家,有決心扮演21世紀國際秩序靠山的角色。

《聯合聲明》選擇在聯合國五年一度的《不擴散核武器條約》審議大會前簽署,是有其宣示意義的,表示5國對於核不擴散的合作決心。大陸外交部副部長馬朝旭介紹《聯合聲明》的重要意義就表示,5國理應以《聯合聲明》為新的起點,增進互信,加強協作,為建設持久和平、普遍安全的世界發揮積極作用。

《不擴散核武器條約》簽署於1968年,是無核國家與5大核武器國家之間的一項協議,有190多國簽署,旨在防止核武器擴散,承認5國「合法」擁有核武的地位。其他3個擁有核武國家──印度、巴基斯坦和以色列迄今一直拒絕簽署該條約,而另一個實際擁核國的朝鮮更是譴責該條約。該條約本來定於本月審議,但由於Omicron變種病毒疫情等因素被推遲舉行。

“為美國退位作準備”

5國《聯合聲明》之所以能夠成功,背後與中、俄兩國在核武器投射能力的進步有很大的關係,迫使美國願意在核武的發展、應用與管制上進行大國合作。美國對於重返與《伊朗核協議》談判也有其需要,特別是拜登最近內政外交一無所獲,亟需一項外交成就來拯救自己低迷的民調與民主黨不振的選情。所以《伊朗核協議》將是此項聲明的試金石。

事實上,伊朗也希望盡快解決被制裁的困境。伊朗的經濟形勢非常困難,如果伊朗沒有達成協議,將面臨強烈的內部反應,可能會有社會起義的出現。伊朗不但在國際上將受譴責與更大的壓力,對周邊什葉派的影響力也正在衰退。5國聲明將對伊朗產生重大壓力,做出一定的讓步,讓美國重回談判桌。這個壓力不僅會出現在伊朗,也可能出現在朝鮮。所以朝鮮最近也有動作。據朝中社6日報導,朝鮮國防科學院5日進行高超音速導彈試射。

表面上,美中、美俄之間劍拔弩張,勢同水火,但事實上,全球治理方面還是有許多合作空間,可以互相投桃報李、利益交換。如果擁核大國真心願意處理核武的使用擴散問題,至少是一種和平的跡象。

二戰結束後,美、蘇兩大核武國家克制核武使用,避免全面性、毀滅性的衝突,雖然有大大小小的代理人戰爭,至少維繫了近50年的冷戰和平。未來國際秩序可能會因為這項聲明重新回到二戰結束創建聯合國的大國共治的精神,為美國步下唯一超強後的世界格局預作準備,台灣深處中美交鋒最前線,更要精準掌握情勢變化,妥為因應。
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