Both the U.S. and Russia are well aware that this conflict basically cannot be resolved without Ukraine — there is no basis for compromise.
I will say again what I said back in 2014 when I predicted there would be war. The main points are these:
Russia will never be able to force the U.S. to formally guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO because this violates NATO’s fundamental principle of being open to new member countries. The U.S. wouldn’t ever agree to this even if Russia threatened direct aggression in Ukraine and destruction of its statehood. The West would sacrifice Ukraine but would not meet Russia halfway on the issue of NATO expansion.
On the other hand, Russia and the U.S. want to avoid war because it could easily turn nuclear.
The U.S. is aware that Ukraine’s admission into NATO would seriously threaten Russia’s security, but it cannot deny Ukraine’s right to apply for membership in the alliance.
The U.S. has made it clear to Russia that Ukraine will not join NATO as a member in the next decade or beyond because Ukraine does not qualify for membership. But this has not satisfied Russia at all, as it continues to demand NATO bar admission to Ukraine and prevent the country from being militarized.
Both the U.S. and Russia are also well aware that this conflict basically cannot be resolved without Ukraine , and that there are no grounds for compromise as each side brings its own logic, truth and arguments to bear.
Hence the reasonable conclusion is this: Both sides will sooner or later come to the realization, or may have in fact already done so, that the only compromise is to ensure that Ukraine remains neutral. Otherwise, the situation will lead to full-scale war between Ukraine and Russia. It is already quite clear that the threat of sanctions will not be able to deter Russia if it considers that a war with Ukraine is its last resort in a confrontation with the West — to be more precise, with the U.S. — because Europe has shown that it has stepped away from this fight and considers it to be an issue between the U.S. and Russia. And to be completely honest, the EU believes that Ukraine has only itself to blame for the situation in which it finds itself and does not want to spoil its own relationship with Russia over it, but the U.S. is putting pressure on Europe to get involved against its will.
It is just a matter of persuading and ultimately forcing Ukraine itself to relinquish its hopes about joining NATO and remain neutral.
Is this feasible for Ukraine?
The answer is yes, it is! But only if the nature of state power drastically changes. Everyone who staked their claim to power on membership in NATO at any cost should quit politics.
By the way, think it is now clear to many of us why the West refused to publicly support Petro Poroshenko in his treason case.
So, what will Ukraine do? Will it choose war or … non-war?
The author, Andrii Holovachov, is a political expert.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.