For the US, Ukraine Is Far Away

Many people in the United States are tired of war, and the escalation between Russia and Ukraine is of little interest to them. Except when oil prices go up.

President Joe Biden’s message could hardly have been more urgent as he spoke to the press about the Ukraine crisis on Friday. He said he was convinced Vladimir Putin would invade, and the attack was imminent.* The CNBC stock market network, which I had on in my New York office, broadcast the speech. At first, anyway.

However, the president had just begun to describe how serious the situation was when the anchor switched to the Beijing Winter Olympics. Instead of Biden in the White House, you could watch the curling duel between Switzerland and Japan.

There is an economic explanation for this surprising change of stories: CNBC belongs to the NBC broadcasting group, which has secured the U.S. broadcasting rights to the Olympic Games until 2032 for a total of $7.75 billion. NBC must recoup its investment through advertising. Accordingly, it is important for the broadcaster to also run the booked advertising spots.

Nevertheless, the event says something about the current relationship Americans have with their allies on the other side of the Atlantic. Those in charge of a large U.S. television network apparently do not consider an impending war in Europe and an urgent speech about it by the American president sufficiently important to warrant a change in the regular schedule.

US Citizens Are War-Fatigued

It’s not as if Americans haven’t paid any attention to the crisis. Other broadcasters like CNN, The New York Times, The Washington Post and other leading media outlets have provided extensive and up-to-date reporting on the situation. However, in the daily life of most Americans, the conflict feels very far away. I have not found any polls or research that addresses this question, but as a long-time correspondent, I have my own explanation and interpretation of this American nonchalance.

The country’s fatigue with war certainly has something to do with it. Biden ended the forever war in Afghanistan only last summer after 20 years. It was anything but glorious: The U.S. government cleared the field for the Taliban. And as correct as the decision to withdraw was, the way it was executed ended in a shameful humanitarian catastrophe. It’s understandable that the majority of people in America have little interest in providing military aid to endangered democracies around the world.

However, not all that long ago, such war weariness would not have been an issue in dealing with threatened European allies. The relationship between Europe and the former British colony has always been special, after all. But for a while now, the U.S. superpower has turned even more inward than it did during previous periods of isolation.

Distance from Europe Is Politically Desirable

This distancing is, in part, politically desirable. President Barack Obama completed a pivot to Asia in 2011. Washington’s foreign policy was meant to steer the view toward the Pacific and away from the Atlantic. The U.S. has increasingly focused on China, its ambitious, aspirational rival. Obama’s neglect of the Old World is one of the reasons for the resurgence of Putin’s Russia.

If Obama was more indifferent toward his European allies, his successor Donald Trump trampled all over them. There were Trump’s attacks on NATO, an institution once spearheaded by the United States. Trump’s quarrel with French President Emmanuel Macron at the 2019 NATO summit was memorable, as it played out in front of the camera, the rifts in the alliance visible to the entire world.

Trump’s predecessors repeatedly urged the Europeans, and in particular the Germans, to contribute more to the costs of military protection. However, Trump’s demands were not only undiplomatic, they cast doubt on the reliability of the partnership. Trump’s unconcealed criticism of America’s allies and of NATO has had consequences for how the public views the trans-Atlantic relationship.

There is also another more subtle factor to consider. For more and more Americans, Europe no longer plays the emotional role it once did. White Americans still make up the majority of the population, most of them descended from European immigrants. But in the 2020 census, while every other group recorded growth compared to 2010, the number of people who solely identify as white decreased from 63.6% to 57.8%. For many U.S. citizens, Europe isn’t the old country, but simply one of many regions in the world. Accordingly, they feel less involved in conflicts like the current one in Ukraine.

American Citizens Are Also Feeling the Increase in Oil Prices

That doesn’t mean a Russian invasion of Ukraine will go unnoticed. At least in the short term, it will drive up oil prices even further than they are now. In recent weeks, they have climbed to a seven-year high. On Friday, a barrel of North Sea Brent Crude oil cost $91.14. Brent is the global benchmark for oil prices. An attack by Russia could cause prices to increase to $120 a barrel, according to analysts from the investment bank JP Morgan. Natural gas could also become more expensive. Russia is the third largest producer of oil and the second largest producer of natural gas. Sanctions could largely cut off the supply.

Higher energy and gas prices might propel inflation in the United States even further than the current rate of 7.5%. Inflation could reach more than 10%, as recently calculated by the consulting firm RSM.

Higher prices at gas pumps and supermarket checkouts may make it abruptly clear to Americans: At least economically, the United States is in no way decoupled from Europe and the rest of the world.

*Editor’s note: Quickly changing events in Ukraine and Russia may render parts of this article moot, but the editors believe the perspective expressed remains relevant. As this translation is published, Russia has, indeed, invaded Ukraine.