Venezuelan Gorbachev*

*Editor’s Note: On March 4, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Mikhail Delyagin, a member of the State Duma, on where the U.S. “friendship” with Nicolas Maduro against Russia could lead.

The U.S. right now is trying to temporarily rebuild the carbon market, flirting with the states it has choked with sanctions for a long time. Washington strategists plan to make Venezuela a “weak link” in the Russian line of defense. For a long time it supplied the U.S. with heavy crude oil, and since only the Americans could process it, factually Venezuela was a colony without rights. The White House didn’t even care who was in power in Caracas. But President Hugo Chávez managed to build relationships with Russia and China and show the world that a Latin American country with a robust resource base can shake off Washington’s edicts and achieve political and economic independence.

The U.S., naturally, began pressuring Venezuela, especially because back then, Washington was trying to strengthen its position in the global oil market, eliminating its major opponents. (One-third of the world’s oil reserves ended up under sanctions.) Venezuelan heavy crude oil was replaced by Russian heavy crude oil and oil products, but now, in the era of the anti-Moscow “crusade,” the U.S. has to fill 10% of its imports with heavy crude oil because of the nature of its oil processing structure.

Of course, Washington has remembered Venezuela; just as it cast the country aside before, it has now beckoned Caracas to come around! The U.S. has begun talks with Nicolas Maduro’s administration on reviving the oil supply. All its actions are aimed at one goal: to bend the Venezuelan leader toward cooperation. Simply put, the U.S. wants to buy him as cheaply as possible and for a short period of time.

Any investments in the Venezuelan oil-producing industry from the U.S. are out of question, despite the fact that to restore its oil-producing industry, the country would need an estimated seven to eight years and about $250 billion in investments. Some other things are out of question as well: liftin sanctions, lifting the seizure of the country’s gold reserves in foreign banks (about $2 billion) and, finally, rescinding the $15 million reward that the U.S. placed on the information that would connect Maduro to drug trafficking. In other words, the Venezuelan leader is supposed to strike a deal with the very people who placed a bounty on his head.

Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland hastened to confirm that there will be no changes in the White House strategy regarding Venezuela, and that the Biden administration still considers opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the legitimate president.

This U.S. position clearly reveals the temporary nature of the proposed deal. As soon as an alternative supplier emerges, the situation will return to normal, and the Venezuelan people will remain under the pressure of sanctions. It is as though the Americans are saying , “Give us a little breather, we’ll steer away from this apocalyptic situation with the gas prices, and then we’ll resume whacking you.”

Of course, internal unrest has already begun in Venezuela. While Chávez relied on a broad popular coalition, after he died, the situation polarized, which led to an attempted coup by Guaido. If Maduro gives in now and starts cooperating with the U.S., even if it’s just in the oil trade, it’s highly likely he will be deposed. By agreeing to “help Washington with Russia,” he’ll demonstrate how inconsistent and weak he is, and will turn into a “Venezuelan Gorbachev.” The question is this: Are the Americans ready for at least some compromise, and what can they offer Maduro? Especially since rumor has it that Venezuela’s gold reserve , frozen in a London bank, has long since “evaporated.”

Besides, a deal with Washington will generate controversy in Latin America. The continent sees NATO and the U.S., which are leading this alliance, as a global threat, as Bolivian former President Evo Morales said yesterday. Furthermore, the state of immigrants from Latin America (primarily from Mexico) in the U.S. is growing increasingly worse every year, and a number of experts are not ruling out massive protest to protect their rights, protests the recall the recent Black Lives Matter movement that shook the country.