Biden Bounces Back

This past January, assessments of how 2021 had gone and the outlook for the new year suggested that the political performance of U.S. President Joe Biden was nothing to be proud of. An approval rating of barely 40% (some polls showed even lower figures), inflation rising to levels unseen in 40 years and the pandemic’s ever-present impact, with the delta and omicron variants, brought down support for him considerably.

Moreover, the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 was attributed to the Biden administration’s handling of it. America’s allies were caught off-guard and the president’s experience and competence in matters of foreign policy were called into question.

Also in January, Biden and the Democrats had two major setbacks: their failure to pass voting rights legislation (a top campaign promise) and the withdrawal of Biden’s major social, economic and environmental package. In both cases, dissidents within the party were responsible.

In short, polls and analysts were predicting that the midterm elections this coming November would potentially be disastrous for Biden’s presidency.

The Invasion of Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine on Feb. 24 is a game changer. For months, Russia had been amassing troops at the border with Ukraine; Biden expected, with good reason, a possible Russian attack on Ukraine.

Anticipating this, Biden was able to bring NATO allies together (some observers had doubted the organization’s usefulness until very recently), as well as the European Union, to strongly oppose Putin’s plans. The move was a success, with the imposition of severe sanctions against the Russian president, his oligarch allies and the country’s economy. Moreover, military equipment and humanitarian aid were sent to Ukraine.

The courage and leadership of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people have inspired and rallied people around the world against the Russian offensive. This was notably the case in Biden’s State of the Union address on March 1. At that moment, the American Congress came together in a bipartisan way behind Ukraine and Biden’s leadership.

Biden’s approach was balanced between noteworthy actions against Putin and his inner circle, while at the same time allowing for enough diplomacy to avoid starting a more widespread and, potentially, nuclear conflict. Since then, NATO and all U.N. countries have unified in a remarkable way against the invasion of Ukraine.

Today, everyone is against Putin. He is more isolated than ever on the international stage, while Biden and his allies accuse him of being a war criminal. Even China, Russia’s faithful friend and the American economy’s main rival, is walking on eggshells. In addition, the effects of the sanctions put in place these last few weeks will be felt more and more on the Russian economy over the next few months.

A Boost for Biden

In this way, the West’s security and the rallying around the American flag give the Biden administration a boost. More traditional Republicans are reclaiming their place in public discourse and are beginning to take an approach that is more removed from Donald Trump’s ultranationalist America First discourse — the trademark of his presidency. Except for some critics, Republicans as a whole support Biden’s approach to Ukraine.

That said, the American political scene remains just as polarized. When representatives of both parties applauded Biden’s remarks in favor of Ukraine and its president, Republicans continued to oppose the Democratic president’s legislative agenda.

Senate confirmation hearings for Biden’s Supreme Court pick, Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, reflected this polarization. Jackson will likely be confirmed and will be the first female African American on the highest court in the land, a historic moment.* Nonetheless, at best, we can only expect very few Republicans to vote for her.

Despite impressive economic growth (3.6% unemployment, a 5.6% rise in salaries) and a certain return to post-pandemic normal, inflation continues to be an issue and the conflict in Ukraine is far from over. That said, we must note that Biden has bounced back and that the American people are largely behind him in his handling of this international crisis.

Nevertheless, the coming challenges are looking difficult and very complex. Since World War II, history has clearly shown the dominant, transformative and decisive role that the United States of America and its president can play on the world stage.

The events of the past months show that American influence is still decisive in international politics and economics. Now it remains to be seen if this important reminder will influence November’s midterms.

*Editor’s Note: On April 7, 2022, the Senate voted to confirm Jackson as the 116th U.S. Supreme Court justice by a vote of 53-47, with three Republicans supporting her appointment.