Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan: Hypocrisy of ‘US Should Restrain Itself’

Published in Sankei Shimbun
(Japan) on 14 August 2022
by Ken Kotani (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by T Kagata. Edited by Wes Vanderburgh.
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has caused a stir in U.S.-China relations. The visit appears to be more of a political stunt by Pelosi than a carefully planned diplomatic move. From China's point of view, the timing of the visit ahead of the Communist Party's upcoming congress is the worst possible. President Xi Jinping reportedly warned President Joe Biden in a strong tone, but Biden did not stop Pelosi on the grounds of separation of powers. Thus China, its reputation crushed, carried out a military exercise encircling Taiwan. This time, the Chinese People's Liberation Army crossed Taiwan's mediation line for the first time and dropped missiles into Japan's exclusive economic zone, both rather provocative moves.

China responded to Pelosi's visit with military force. Furthermore, there is a possibility that China will normalize military exercises in the vicinity of Taiwan and deploy troops on the opposite coast of Taiwan in the future. This visit has given China an excuse to do so. Even without this visit, however, China is steadily laying the groundwork for an invasion of Taiwan, and the focus will be on whether the U.S. and its allies can deter China. In response, Asahi Shimbun states that "Japan needs to strongly urge the U.S. to refrain from actions that unnecessarily increase tensions and destabilize the region." But since it is China that has increased tensions, it feels strange to call for restraint on the U.S. As Sankei Shimbun and Nikkei Shimbun argue, Japan should move in the direction of cooperating with the U.S. and therefore deterring China.

While the U.S. military is the most powerful in the world, when limited to East Asia, the Chinese military is becoming superior. If China were to invade Taiwan today, it is doubtful that the U.S. military would be able to hold it off. Therefore, the U.S. is trying to balance against China by increasing its military power in the East Asian region and realigning its alliances. In June, two U.S. senators introduced a bill to strengthen U.S. support for Taiwan, urging the increase of Taiwan's defense capabilities. Last September, the U.S., the U.K. and Australia formed a military alliance, AUKUS, to supply nuclear submarines to Australia in preparation for China's maritime expansion. In the future, Japan will be expected to make a commensurate military contribution.

This time, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made Japan's position clear by holding direct talks with Pelosi during her visit to Japan. This contrasts with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who avoided direct talks. Last year, the late former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said "a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency," which is said to have angered China, but the time has come for Japan to take the Taiwan issue seriously.


ペロシ氏訪台「自制すべきは米国」に違和感 日本大教授・小谷賢

2022/8/14 10:00

米国下院議長のナンシー・ペロシ氏が台湾を訪問したことが、米中関係に一石を投じている。今回の訪問は外交的に練られたものというよりは、氏の政治的なスタンド・プレーのようだ。中国からすれば、共産党大会を控えたタイミングの訪問は最悪で、習近平国家主席はバイデン米大統領に強い口調で警告したとされるが、大統領は三権分立を理由にペロシ氏を制止しなかった。こうしてメンツを潰された形の中国は、台湾を囲む形での軍事演習を強行した。今回は初めて中国人民解放軍が中台の中間線を越え、かつ日本の排他的経済水域(EEZ)にもミサイルを落下させるというかなり挑発的なものとなった。

今回のペロシ氏の台湾訪問に対して、中国は軍事力で応えた形となる。さらに言えば今後、中国は台湾周辺での軍事演習や、台湾対岸での部隊展開を常態化させる可能性もあり、訪問はその口実を中国側に与えたことになる。ただ今回の件がなくとも中国は台湾侵攻に向けた布石を着実に打ち続けており、焦点は米国やその同盟国が中国を抑止できるかにある。これに対して朝日新聞は「いたずらに緊張を高め、地域を不安定化させる行動は慎むよう日本は米国にも強く働きかけていく必要がある」とするが、緊張を高めているのは中国側であるため、米国に自制を求めるのは違和感を覚える。産経新聞や日経新聞が論じているように、日本としては米国と連携して中国を抑止する方向に進むべきだろう。

米軍は世界最強の軍隊であるが、東アジアに限定すれば、中国優位の状況になりつつある。今、中国が台湾に侵攻すれば、米軍がそれを押しとどめられるかは微妙だ。そこで米国は東アジア地域での軍事力の増強や同盟再編によって、対中軍事バランスを均衡させようとしている。6月には米上院議員2人が台湾支援強化法案を提出、台湾の防衛力強化を促した。また昨年9月には米英豪で軍事同盟となるAUKUS(オーカス)を結成し、豪州へ原子力潜水艦を供給することで、中国の海洋進出にも備えている。今後は、日本にもそれなりの軍事的貢献が求められることになるだろう。

今回、岸田文雄首相は訪日したペロシ氏と直接会談を行うことで、日本の旗幟(きし)を鮮明にした。韓国の尹錫悦(ユン・ソンニョル)大統領が直接会談を避けたのとは対照的だ。昨年、故安倍晋三元首相が「台湾有事は日本有事」と発言し、中国側の怒りを買ったとされるが、われわれも台湾問題に対して真剣に向き合う時が来ている。
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