After the Primaries: MAGA’s Victory Not Certain

After last week’s primaries, the U.S.’ political forecasts look a bit different than they did six months ago.

The U.S. primaries concluded with voting in New Hampshire, Delaware and Rhode Island. They are a preparation for the midterm elections in November, in which Americans will vote primarily for representatives to Congress but also for local authorities in many states. 36 states will elect their governors.

In a way, the results of the 2024 presidential election will also depend on who holds these positions, because the winners will shape the politics of the country for the next two years.

Within the Republican Party, the far-right candidates were well visible, with as much as 36%. “In doing so, they gave the impression that the MAGA movement, with former President Donald Trump pulling the strings, is holding strong in the party,” writes the Washington Post.*

In the Democratic primaries, on the other hand, the extreme left did not break through, despite going viral on social media. The so-called Democratic Socialists waved slogans such as “defund the police,” “state health insurance for all” or “Green New Deal.” Instead, the moderate candidates triumphed. “The far left is not as strong as the right,” says Elaine Kamarck of the Brookings Institution.*

What does this mean ahead of the November elections? Democratic candidates, who will fight for votes in November against the MAGA candidates, are rubbing their hands because their opponents seem easier to defeat due to the extremity of their views. Such conviction can be felt, for example, in New Hampshire, where Don Bolduc, a pro-Trump candidate who denies the validity of the 2020 presidential election, won the Senate primary on the Republican side. Democrats in that state even supported him with ads, weakening the chances of his moderate opponent, because they knew that Bolduc’s extreme views give their representative a better chance in the November elections.

In other states, such as Arizona, Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania, it is already clear that Trump’s anointed Senate candidates are not doing well in the polls. “Republicans could stand a better chance of gaining a majority in the House than in the Senate,” said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, referencing candidate quality.

Republicans got what they wanted when the primaries began in Texas in March: high inflation, economic uncertainty and an unpopular president of the opposition party. But within months, Democrats, who in March were given no chance of retaining their Senate majority in November’s midterm elections, have gained new political weapons, including the future of access to legal abortion and the future of democracy. They hope that by doing so, they will gain the votes of swing voters.

The economic reports, especially the monthly inflation reports, continue to hurt the Democrats’ image. Working in their favor are reports such as the legislative proposal of Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham to ban abortion throughout the country after the 15th week of pregnancy, regardless of state laws, which in Democratic states protect access to abortion despite the June Supreme Court decision revoking the constitutional right to this procedure.

*These quotes, though accurately translated, could not be independently verified.