OPD 9 Dec 2024, edited by Helaine Schweitzer, proofing in progress

Deterrence in the Face of North Korean Aggression

Published in Tokyo Shimbun
(Japan) on 5 October 2022
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Joseph Santiago. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
The intercontinental ballistic missile fired by North Korea that flew over the Japanese islands on Oct. 4 had wide-ranging effects in the city of Sapporo, such as disrupting rail schedules. Terrorizing normal people like this cannot go unchecked. The Japanese government must demand an immediate stop to these missile tests, while cooperating with the American and South Korean governments to put a stop to North Korea’s aggression.

Late last month in the Sea of Japan, the American and South Korean militaries held large-scale joint military drills, with Japan joining later to participate in anti-submarine drills. This likely prompted Pyongyang’s repeated missile tests with the aim of discouraging further drills, while also displaying its own military power.

As part of its five-year national defense plan, North Korea has aimed to strengthen and diversify its arsenal of missiles. Yesterday’s launch shows that it has exceeded its previous distance record of 2,800 miles. With its technology developing dramatically and its launch methods improving, it will only become more difficult to intercept any missiles the country may fire. Defense organizations from Japan, America and South Korea must work in tandem to accurately predict the launching of any missiles and whatever trajectories they may take.

We also cannot afford to ignore the pace at which Pyongyang is conducting these tests, with over 20 since the start of the year and about five within the past 10 days. Is North Korea trying to scare the three aforementioned countries and the wider international community into bending to its terms, or is it hoping to divert attention from the food shortage it is currently experiencing? We need to determine exactly what Kim’s government is hoping to achieve.

Additionally, many believe it will start conducting its seventh set of nuclear tests next month, which may very well worsen the anxiety currently rife on the Korean peninsula. North Korea has classified itself as a nuclear power, meaning it has adopted laws pertaining to the conditions needed for the use of nuclear arms, one of which is the right to a preemptive strike as an act of self-preservation. This has only heightened fears of the outbreak of a nuclear war.

In opposition to these dangerous provocations, Japan, the United States, South Korea and the wider international community must come together to contain North Korea and take the first step to having a constructive dialogue. Even their neighbor China must step away from the sidelines and convince its long-time ally to stop these needless affronts. While Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has promised a drastic strengthening of defenses, bringing North Korea back from its status as an international pariah using diplomacy cannot be discounted as a fruitless endeavor.


<社説>北ミサイル発射 日米韓連携で抑止図れ

北朝鮮が発射した弾道ミサイルは日本列島上空を通過し、鉄道ダイヤが一時乱れるなど広範囲で影響が出た、札幌市。市民を不安に陥れる許しがたい行為だ。発射実験の即時停止を求める。日本政府は米国、韓国との連携を強化するなど北朝鮮の動きを封じるために全力を挙げねばならない。
 米韓両軍は九月下旬、日本海で大規模な合同訓練を行い、その後日本を加えた三カ国で対潜水艦作戦の共同訓練も実施した。北朝鮮の相次ぐミサイル発射には自らの能力を誇示し、日米韓の動きをけん制する狙いがあるのだろう。
 北朝鮮は国防力発展五カ年計画に基づきミサイルの高度化、多角化を図ってきた。今回のミサイルは過去最長の四千六百キロ飛行したとみられ性能向上を裏付けた。技術の進歩は著しく、発射の方法も多岐にわたり迎撃は難しい。
 日米韓の防衛当局は情報を共有してミサイル発射の予兆や軌道など正確な把握に努めてほしい。
 見過ごせないのは異常ともいえる発射ペースだ。今年に入りミサイル実験は二十回以上、直近十日間では計五回にも及ぶ。
 日米韓など国際社会と対話を始めるための条件整備なのか、食糧難など内部の不満をそらすためなのか。北朝鮮の意図を慎重に見極める必要があるだろう。
 さらに、北朝鮮が来月にかけて七回目の核実験を強行するとの見方も広がっている。新たな核実験は朝鮮半島を巡る情勢を一層不安定にしかねない。
 さらに北朝鮮は自国を「核保有国」と規定し、核兵器の使用条件を定める法令を採択した。体制維持のためには核を先制使用することを明確にした内容であり、核戦争を誘発する懸念もある。
 北朝鮮の危険な挑発には、日米韓をはじめ国際社会が結束して封じ込めを図る一方、対話の糸口を見つけ出すよう努めるべきだ。隣国の中国にも、事態を傍観せず、伝統的友好国の北朝鮮を説得し、挑発をやめさせる責任がある。
 岸田文雄首相は防衛力の抜本強化を表明しているが、対話を通じて北朝鮮を国際社会に引き戻す努力を怠ってはならない。
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