The World and the US Midterm Elections

the Republicans win control of Congress, they are determined to slow down President Biden’s economic agenda and complicate his plans to control inflation

From a global perspective, midterm elections in the United States are usually not as interesting as presidential elections. Now, given the serious polarization in the United States, things are very different.

It’s not an overstatement to say that the U.S. is at a critical point in its history. This election does not merely define a new profile of the United States and measure how effective Joe Biden’s administration is, but it threatens to deepen the country’s sharp political divide and compromise the strength of its democracy.

It is no surprise that the world is watching events in the United States with some concern about the election and what the results may mean in terms of global crises and U.S. policy on issues facing the international economic agenda.

Although they are not on the ballot, Biden and Donald Trump are confronting each other again in a sort of referendum that, in addition to risking the how effective the Democrats’ initiatives will be over the next two years, anticipates the 2024 presidential race and allows us to measure how strong Trump really is within the Republican Party.

The latest poll averages from Real Clear Politics indicate that the Republican Party will have a 2 1/2 point advantage toward a majority in the House of Representatives (48% Republican vs. 45% Democrats). Even though these polls suggest that the Senate race will be tight, Republicans have been gaining ground that could compromise the Democrats’ precarious majority.*

If the Republicans win control of Congress, they are determined to slow down President Biden’s economic agenda and complicate his plans to control inflation and respond to global crises. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has even announced that Republicans will oppose aid for Ukraine. There is more to come if the Republicans win the Senate.

The most important issue the election will be the result margins. In other words, results will show whether voters are narrowly divided or whether Republicans will prevail by wide margins. This is all relevant to figuring out what voters will tend to do in the 2024 presidential election.

From our regional point of view, it’s clear that the confrontation between Republicans and Democrats will exacerbate the debate on migration, which may again lead to reductionist positions that further complicate cooperation.

In any event, the dynamic and complex relationship with our neighbor to the north involves a strong level of interdependence that requires both sides to look beyond the current situation given our long-term and mutually beneficial partnership with the United States..

*Editor’s note: Although the midterm elections have now occurred, as of Nov. 10, political control of the House and Senate are still to be determined.