Coming to a Head*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Political scientist Viktor Pirozhenko – on the topic of U.S. preparation for a military confrontation with China

The acute reaction of the U.S. to the incident with the Chinese civilian balloon shielded a series of more serious events and decisions linked to the active practical military, political and economic preparation of the U.S. for possible armed confrontation with China over Taiwan. With the backdrop of such a preparation, the collective West intimidates the countries of the Asia-Pacific region with the “Chinese threat” and catastrophic scenarios.

During his recent visit to Japan, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg predicted that “What is happening in Europe today, could happen in East Asia tomorrow,” connecting it to Chinese attempts to establish control over the South China Sea and its threats to Taiwan.

Analyzing changes in the American strategy of military presence in the Asia-Pacific region, Chinese experts draw attention to the United States’ shift to the concept of “distributed operations” that became Washington’s reaction to the increased power of the Chinese army. This concept envisages the distribution of the U.S. Armed Forces over a wider range of locations, which should complicate the delivery of strikes against them by the People’s Liberation Army in a supposed military conflict.

In the process of dispersing its troops, the U.S. is moving its main expeditionary forces to the east of the Philippines, to the second island chain, composed of the Mariana Islands, and further to Wake Island and Hawaii. The Philippines, as well as the islands of the first chain, located nearby, including Japan’s Okinawa, are no longer considered safe for U.S. bases.

Small but mobile forces will be placed on the first island chain near Taiwan and mainland China, as will be the means of reconnaissance, which are supposed to watch the People’s Liberation Army’s movements and detect in advance threats to the main forces of the U.S.

The practical embodiment of this concept was the recently expanded agreement between Washington and Manila on defense cooperation, according to which the U.S. gained the ability to disperse its military forces among four additional military bases in the Philippines.

American missile defense on Guam is bolstered by Standard Missile anti-missile systems of various modifications, as well as the Patriot and Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense systems. This island is a major logistical support center for the U.S. Air Force and Navy in the Asia-Pacific region.

The deployment of new weapon systems on some Japanese islands near Taiwan could become a relatively new component of the anti-Chinese “deterrence,” including medium-range missiles, Tomahawk cruise missiles and hypersonic long-range weapons. According to the media, this question is up for discussion by the U.S. and its partners at a high level.

Chinese military analysts warn that this plan poses a serious threat to the region’s countries, including China, North Korea and Russia; however, in this case Beijing will provide the decisive “strategic answer.” It could mean placing medium-range missiles aimed at the locations of the U.S. bases in Japan.

These efforts are supported by actions of the U.S. to disentangle itself from China technologically, which would allow the U.S., in case of an escalation in the Taiwanese crisis, to be independent of the supply chains for critically important products from that region. Currently, the U.S. is trying to reorganize the global supply chain of semiconductors, forcing the market participants to break close cooperative ties with China.

Regarding the latest events, we should take note of the agreement between the U.S., the Netherlands and Japan reached at the end of January on restricting the export of cutting-edge equipment for circuit production to China, including planar process machines. The agreement will extend some of the export control measures adopted in the U.S. in October 2022 to companies in the Netherlands and Japan, including ASML, Nikon and Tokyo Electron.

According to CNBC, the decision to prohibit U.S. companies from selling even 4G internet chips to China has already been made; until now, only the sale of components for 5G were restricted.

Considering how acute the disagreements between the U.S. and China are, mutual economic and technological dependence has, until now, mitigated moments of crisis in their bilateral relations. But it seems that this is precisely what the U.S. doesn’t like; it wants to free its hands in the case of future conflicts with China over Taiwan.

China notes that Washington’s political line in deterring China is, in general, unrealistic, but this is precisely why the U.S.’s persistent efforts to implement it at any cost take more irresponsible and dangerous forms. The actions of the U.S. will not impact the dominance of Chinese armed forces in the western part of the Pacific Ocean that holds the sprawling sea supply lines of the U.S. military bases in their sights, as well as the bases themselves.

Since the beginning of February, the People’s Liberation Army has conducted large-scale military maneuvers around the island, practicing all possible Taiwan escalation scenario responses. Chinese media link it to the plans of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to visit the island in the spring following the example of Nancy Pelosi.

Considering the fact that Washington is guided in its relations with both China and Russia by a strategy of deterrence, and that Beijing is not planning to step away from its plans of sovereign development, there will be increasingly more crisis situations in American Chinese relations.