The incumbent president almost has a free ride to the Democratic presidential nomination. But although his support is widespread, it is not very deep.
If U.S. political analysts are to be believed, the 2024 election could be a rematch between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump. This is currently seen as a grudge match, probably boring and disappointing to the voters.
And the voters are not really eager for such a matchup. In fact, 60% of Americans think that Trump shouldn’t run and 70% feel the same about Biden.
The reasons, however, are quite different. Biden won the presidency without too much trouble, in an election that Trump and his followers have questioned, without any more proof than their ideology. He is the country’s president and normally would almost have a free ride to the Democratic presidential nomination. But although his support is widespread, it is not very deep.
It is true, for example, that the majority of Democrats think because he is 80 years old, he should not run, but that is mainly a question of age, not of ideology. The results of last year’s midterm elections, much less negative and even more positive than anticipated, silenced the ideological objections. Furthermore, there weren’t any mistakes or big scandals.
In addition, he looks like the best possible alternative to Trump, and he has already proved himself in the 2020 campaign.
According to all the signals, Biden will launch his campaign this week.* His already declared challengers, Marianne Williamson and Robert Kennedy Jr., seem for the moment to be more symbolic than real.
For his part, Trump is in full campaign mode. In fact, his first steps have been to try to destroy those who have already declared their candidacy for the Republican nomination, in particular, Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida.**
Trump has unleashed a storm of insults and scorn at the governor. DeSantis, who at the start of the year seemed like the most viable heir to Trumpism without Trump, has the same tendencies to nationalist and rightist populism, but without Trump’s personal baggage.
The Republicans, or at least the dominant sector of the party, are happy with taking a strident tone and adopting hard positions and are campaigning on that basis.
One part of their election campaign agenda is built around themes that they have already used in other elections and that Trump used successfully in 2016: immigration, borders, crime and drug trafficking.
As far as many are concerned, DeSantis is in trouble. And he’s not the only one. Former Vice President Mike Pence is on standby, but still has not declared his candidacy. Meanwhile, the former governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, thinks he has a shot thanks to Trump’s lack of support among likely voters in the general election.
In fact, 60% of voters believe that Trump should not run and, even worse, 30% think that his legal problems will disqualify him, and that his presence will stir up active rejection in important sectors in U.S. society, especially among women and minorities.
*Editor’s Note: President Joe Biden announced on Tuesday, April 25, that he will seek reelection in 2024.
**Editor’s Note: As of the date of publication, Gov. Ron DeSantis has not yet declared himself a candidate for the 2024 presidential election.
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