Can DeSantis Dethrone Trump?

Don’t be fooled by the catastrophic launch of Donald Trump’s campaign to knock Ron DeSantis out of the race. The candidate for the Republican presidential nomination has many other assets to use in beating Trump.

Donald J. Trump’s absolute dominion over Republicans has defined the Grand Old Party for seven years now. Not once since 2016, despite the scandals, indictments and election defeats, has anyone or anything seriously challenged his hold on the party.

With one exception: late last year, following the midterm elections, when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, newly reelected with a strong majority of 59%, emerged as a threat to Trump.

DeSantis led Trump in numerous polls at both the national level and in key states, banking on a combination other Republican rivals of the former president had been unable to shape — rallying the establishment, the party’s militant base and a segment of the Trumpist base.

How things have changed in six months! On May 24, the day DeSantis officially announced his candidacy for president in a botched launch on Twitter; he trailed Trump by 30 points among Republican voters.

The plunge is such that some observers are wondering whether it might not have been wiser for the Florida governor — who, at 46, would be the youngest president ever elected with the exception of John F. Kennedy, should he win in 2024 — to sit this one out and wait for the next election cycle.

Can DeSantis still hope to dislodge Trump? The answer is nuanced.

Perhaps DeSantis Has Lost in Advance …

There should be no illusions about the depth of the hole from which DeSantis is launching his campaign. No candidate, in at least a half-century, so far behind the leader at this stage in the race, has ever won the party’s nomination, save once more than 30 years ago.

Not only is the climb for DeSantis extremely steep, but it has been made even more difficult by the fact that, to get there, he will have to both attack Trump and remain in the good graces of at least a portion of his constituency.

And DeSantis will have to do all of this while he himself, as has now been the case for months, is a major target of attack. Democrats, who would much prefer to face Trump than DeSantis in a general election, will relish amplifying the shots taken by the former president at his rival.

Other Republican candidates will be equally tempted to go after DeSantis, looking to replace him as an alternative to Trump; or, to curry his good graces in the hopes of a candidacy for vice president. This is precisely the game Nikki Haley seems to have been playing for weeks.

What’s more, the fact that there are other Republican hopefuls constitutes in itself a sign of DeSantis’ political weakness. He had to unite all the anti-Trump voices in the Republican Party before kicking off his campaign. However, in just the last few days, no fewer than three governors and one former governor — Doug Burgum of North Dakota, Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, and Chris Christie of New Jersey — have announced their intention to enter the race. They add their names to those of Haley, Sen. Tim Scott and, most likely, former Vice President Mike Pence.

It is a vicious circle for DeSantis — the more weakened he is, the more attractive the situation for new candidates; and the more candidates there are, the more weakened he is.

Does weakened necessarily mean dead and buried? Not quite.

… But Perhaps He Has Not

At least three important factors still allow DeSantis to realistically believe in his chances to land the party’s nomination.

First, DeSantis continues to enjoy enormous affection and openness from Republican voters. Certainly, for now, he is no longer preferred over Trump as the first choice for presidential candidate. Still, when pollsters from CNN asked party voters in mid-May if they might consider supporting DeSantis in 2024, 85% said yes. It was the highest among all potential candidates and one point ahead of Trump, who garnered 84%. None of the others even reached 70%.

In other words, a critical mass of voters could jump on the DeSantis train if he makes a good showing, notably in the debates, the first of which is set to take place in August. His potential level of support remains high.

Next, though the race for the Republican nomination is a national one, it begins with state primaries. As is the case every four years, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the first states to vote, will carry disproportionate weight. If DeSantis manages to defeat Trump in one of those three states, the national dynamic could quickly turn in his favor.

Finally, DeSantis has an essential resource for any presidential campaign in the United States: money. His estimated war chest from the starting line is around $100 million.

It is very often the lack of campaign funds that pushes a candidate toward the exit door. Barring tremendous unforeseen difficulties, money should not be an obstacle for the Florida governor who benefits from the financial resources to stay in the running right up to the end.

It remains to be seen if he can. And that, in May 2023, no one knows.