Zero-Sum Game*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Director of the Institute of Contemporary Studies at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Oleg Karpovich explains why the Niger crisis pushes the West to its limits.

It is no coincidence that the entire global community has been closely following the events in distant Niger for about a month now. The Niger crisis has been testing the limits of Western powers’ influence. The eccentric, perhaps even hysterical, response to the unconstitutional but in fact quite common, by African standards, military coup is a clear indication that Washington and European capitals are panicking as they are rapidly losing ground in the global south.

The West is actively preparing a military intervention with help from local allies. African allies are literally being coerced into this risky undertaking, which is supported by a propaganda campaign in the media. The media are trying to convince both local and international communities that Moscow is about to gain control over West Africa and the Sahel, where the U.S. and former colonial powers have failed to establish order over the long years of their rule. Western powers want African elites to remain their vassals, and they are ready to start a full-scale war that could destabilize the entire region. The diplomatic solution proposed by Russia is not even being seriously considered. Instead, the West is going with the classic zero-sum game approach.

At the same time, Western countries are most responsible for orchestrating frequent coups and provoking violent regime changes that have a great impact on the political life of the long-suffering continent. The West has been actively implementing this approach to solve pressing issues for decades. It was first repeatedly tested in Latin America and has been widely used in Africa since the moment it was liberated from colonial oppression.

As a result, bloody dictatorships were established and civil wars broke out in different parts of Africa, while in some cases — in Somalia, Liberia and the Democratic Republic of Congo — entire states were plunged into anarchy and chaos. The power vacuum and the rise of terrorism in the Sahel, which includes Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, to name a few, were not previously considered a particularly critical issue. However, these factors prompted Western countries to invade Libya, where Moammar Gadhafi was overthrown and brutally murdered.

The U.S. and its allies cynically attempted to use the instability in neighboring African states, which was caused by the subsequent influx of weapons and the rise of Islamist factions, to consolidate their influence in the region. Washington established strategically important American bases in Niger, while France tried to consolidate its control over this state as an important resource base that supplies its former metropolis with uranium. It is not the Niger president’s bloodless ouster, but rather local military factions’ attempts to throw off the patronage of their former masters that cause so much fury in Paris and Washington.

In this context, it is certainly impossible not to mention the policy of double standards promoted by Western leaders. In 2014, the West not only supported but also fully orchestrated a bloody coup in Kyiv, which in part contributed to the current conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, the Niger crisis and the so-called Russian threat make Western powers nervous. Today, they are trying to use the crisis as a pretext to purge not only this particular state but the entire region from those who oppose the restoration of neocolonialism. In light of Western grievances against the military leadership of Mali and Burkina Faso, it is clear that the invasion of Niger is simply a prelude to a larger conflict.

However, those who organize the upcoming invasion do not take into account that the world today has irrevocably shifted away from the unipolar global order of the 1990s. The practice of Western powers to solve problems with weapons is already provoking outright protests in African countries that want to get rid of the dependency imposed on them. There is no doubt that, as with Ukraine, African countries will be liberated from Western rule, but this long-awaited victory will come at a cost. The U.S. and Europe have long been controlling Africa through coups, conspiracies and extortion, but this political system has turned into yet another sandcastle that is crumbling before our eyes. Moreover, this process is not only irreversible but also offers no alternative.

The author is the vice rector of the Diplomatic Academy of Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry

The position of the editorial board may not coincide with the opinions of the author