A Terribly Open Race

Trump and Biden must be present in the presidential race, both in the states and online. This could be the incumbent’s undoing.

It became official this week: Joe Biden and Donald Trump will once again oppose each other in the 2024 U.S. presidential race. However, they have swapped roles in two ways: In 2020 Trump was the incumbent and Biden the challenger, and back then Trump had poor poll numbers; today, Biden has them.

With the withdrawal of Trump’s last remaining competitor, Nikki Haley, after the 15 primaries on Super Tuesday, and Biden’s State of the Union speech Thursday night, the race has officially begun. Eight cruel months await until Nov. 5, when the election finally takes place.

The one who will win is whoever is best able to mobilize the people who voted for him in 2020 to vote for him again. And so far it’s not just poll results that show that Trump is accomplishing that better; enthusiasm for one’s own candidate is also greater in Trump’s camp than in Biden’s.

With his State of the Union speech, Biden is finally starting to go on the offensive in two respects: Not only did his vital, clear and even quick-witted demeanor without major missteps offer an image broadcast a million times over that runs counter to the sleepy and confused old man who, according to recent polls, has caused almost three-quarters of Americans to doubt that he is capable of a second term.

Video Studio in the Basement

No, Biden also made strong, substantive points to make it once more abundantly clear what his positive vision consists of and how he is different from Trump. The right to abortion, gun law reform, more taxation of the rich, civil rights, support for Ukraine, a firm stance against Vladimir Putin, loyalty to allies, recognition of democracy and the Constitution, just to name a few. Impromptu polls after the speech suggest that this went over quite well. It was the push Democrats needed after depressing months.

But that isn’t enough, of course. In 2020, Biden ran his campaign — it was during the pandemic — for the most part out of a basement converted into a video studio in his house in Delaware. That doesn’t work anymore in 2024; he must go out to the important states. And the 81-year-old is in great danger of making mistakes when talking with voters, answering questions from the media on the street or in town hall formats. However, these hurt more than before in the age of TikTok clips. “Message control,” once a must for any successful election campaign, doesn’t work these days. Whether Biden is a match for this era, unfortunately, may be in doubt.