The Others — What’s the Kennedy Effect on the Race for the White House?

While in 2020, lesser-known candidates did not make much of a difference to the final result, they will matter quite significantly in 2024.

Until now, my columns have discussed only those candidates who have a realistic chance of winning the presidential election in November, Democratic candidate Joe Biden and Republican candidate Donald Trump. This will be a rerun of the 2020 contest, when Biden took Trump’s job. But there is one aspect of the race that will not be a simple repeat. While the lesser-known candidates did not make much of a difference in the final tally in 2020, they will matter in 2024, and quite significantly, as suggested by polls and the attention the news media, social media and popular podcasts are giving them. The most important among these candidates has polled as high as 15% in some polls, a number that could well determine whether Trump or Biden wins in November. This independent candidate carries a very familiar name to many: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Commonly known as RFK Jr., he is a member of the Kennedy dynasty, son of the former U.S. attorney general and presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, who was assassinated in 1968, and nephew of the most popular American president in modern history, Democratic President John F. Kennedy, assassinated in 1963. Now 70, RFK Jr. has fashioned a career as an environmental lawyer, and is famous for environmental activism as well as vaccine skepticism, a position that gained greater prominence when he opposed COVID-19 vaccines and figures connected to the fight against COVID, such as Dr. Anthony Fauci, Bill Gates and even Biden. His stand on vaccines has made him more popular among many vaccine skeptics, who these days are more likely to be politically aligned with the right. Since he didn’t have a realistic chance of winning the Democratic primaries, he announced his candidacy as an independent last October after a lifetime of support for the party of his father and his uncle. Although he positions himself on the left, his populism, unorthodox positions and support of conspiracy theories may well cause more harm to Trump than Biden. It is worth noting that both of the major candidates were seen as strongly in favor of COVID-19 vaccines. RFK Jr. has appeared in a number of influential podcasts, such as Joe Rogan’s show, and this week chose Nicole Shanahan, 38, as his running mate. Shanahan is a tech attorney and former wife of Google co-founder Sergei Brin. A philanthropist and multimillionaire (something that could be a boost for their campaign finances), she has supported many causes and candidates on the left, such as Hillary Clinton, and, like RFK Jr., is a skeptic with regard to the safety of vaccines and a critic of in vitro fertilization. In addition, she has shown interest in artificial intelligence, the promotion of female reproductive longevity, and the fight against poverty.

But RFK Jr. is not the only third-party candidate. There are at least two others who are relevant in this contest, and both threaten to shift voters away from Biden, particularly because of their strong criticism of Israel and the Biden administration’s support for it in the war against Hamas in Gaza. Cornel West is a philosopher, socialist, anti-racist African American activist, and Jill Stein is a doctor, environmental activist and Green Party progressive candidate who has run before, winning 0.36% of the vote in 2012 and 1.07% in 2016.

West took steps to run as the Green Party candidate, and even had Stein’s support, but abandoned the effort last October, choosing to continue as an independent. In February, he created his own party, Justice for All. Given the challenges of garnering enough support to appear on state ballots, a challenge common to all smaller party candidates, he is focusing on Florida, North Carolina and Washington, D.C. Although he has supported Democratic candidates in the past, West was a vocal critic of Barack Obama and a major supporter of the socialist senator, Bernie Sanders. Even more than domestic politics, it’s West’s foreign policy positions that distinguish him from Biden, as West blames the expansion of NATO for the war in Ukraine, similarly to the position RFK Jr. has taken, and is strongly opposed to Israel and a supporter of the Palestinian cause, in this case a stance that differs from the position espoused by RFK Jr. In polling where he is listed, West has stayed below 4%, like Stein, with whom he has a great deal in common ideologically, and who shares his non-interventionism and strong criticism of Israel. Stein is staunchly on the left when it comes to other issues, as she prioritizes energy transition, environmental protection and universal health care.

The most significant of the other candidates who will eventually appear on ballots will be from the Libertarian Party, whose candidate will not be known until the end of May. This is the third largest party in the United States, and typically appears on the ballots in every state, having had good results in recent elections, with Gary Johnson winning 3.3% of the vote in 2016 (a record for the party), and Jo Jorgensen managing 1.18% in 2020. The 2016 result was also the best performance for a third party since Ross Perot won 8.4% in 1996, just four years after he won almost 19% and went toe-to-toe with the major party candidates. Perot’s performance in 1992 is frequently cited as one of the reasons for George H. W. Bush’s loss to Bill Clinton. In an election that is shaping up to be a fierce contest, 1% or 2% of the vote in the most critical battleground states can make all the difference between winning and losing, just as the environmentalist Ralph Nader’s 1.63% in the decisive 2000 decision in Florida was enough to give George W. Bush the victory over Al Gore.

Although current polling shows very high numbers for other candidates, these numbers typically drop as the election approaches, and these third-party candidates typically end up with far less support than polling suggests. On Election Day, particularly in battleground states, voters often realize the significance of their vote and choose the lesser evil when, as appears to be the case this year, the two major candidates are so unpopular. Third-party candidates usually do not appear on every state ballot, and, unless they are polling exceptionally high in September, they won’t not qualify for the presidential debates, another reason for the media to be increasingly less attentive. The performances of these candidates and the influence they may have is therefore quite unpredictable, and we can’t rule out the possibility that someone even more famous and influential will announce their candidacy and scramble a contest that, so far, only Trump and Biden are fiercely fighting.