Trump vs. Biden: The Rematch

At the end of February 2024, the incumbent president’s campaign reelection campaign fund reported it had more than twice as much money as his rival’s.

If you look closely at the 2024 presidential campaigns of Donald Trump and Joe Biden, it’s clear that the two candidates offer distinctly different visions for the future of the United States, not only in terms of domestic policy but also in their attitudes to global and economic challenges.

Each campaign’s fundraising capacity highlights significant differences. Biden has consistently outperformed Trump in this regard, reflecting robust financial support and possibly a larger base of support across the political spectrum. At the end of February 2024, Biden’s reelection campaign reported it had twice as much money as his rival’s.

The Wall Street Journal has suggested that a Trump victory could boost stock markets because he has promised deeper tax cuts, although his aggressive approach to trade, particularly with China, raises concerns about possible renewed conflict. On the other hand, Biden’s reelection could favor renewable energy industries because he has focused on clean energy initiatives.

Trump has proposed imposing universal tariffs on all imports into the U.S. and a specific 60% tariff on imports from China, policies that highlight his protectionist stance. Biden, in keeping with the approach of a previous administration, proposes to increase the corporate tax rate to 28% and double the tax rate on global intangible low-taxed income from 10.5% to 21%, reflecting a more traditional and possibly less divisive approach to international trade and tax policy.

Both candidates have markedly different approaches to China, a critical factor in international relations and global strategy. Trump was notable for his direct confrontational approach and unilateralism, while Biden has preferred a multilateral approach, looking to line up allies in an effort to confront China diplomatically.

While Biden appears to be moving forward with a strategy that emphasizes continuity and stability, backed by solid fundraising and policy proposals that reflect forward thinking, Trump faces the challenge of navigating a complicated landscape of legal and financial interrogation, coupled with a foreign policy approach that favors unilateralism and protectionism.

The implications of these differences for the political and economic future of the United States are profound, and invite continued analysis in the run-up to the November election. One question for those of us who wish Trump does not ever return to office is who will Nikki Haley’s supporters vote for.

Asked if they had to choose between Biden and Trump in November, people displayed a notable bias toward Biden. In Iowa, nearly half of Haley’s supporters, 43%, prefer Biden to Trump.

States that play a decisive role in the Electoral College, often referred to as swing states, will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

For Biden, states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina are critical. In 2020, Biden won close victories in many of these states, which was key to his election. However, he faces specific challenges in maintaining or expanding that support.

For example, his foreign policy, particularly his support for Israel, may complicate his efforts to secure the Muslim minority vote in these states. Biden’s policy toward Israel, perceived as unconditionally supportive, could alienate Muslim voters, who may disagree with his position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Trump, meanwhile, faces his own challenges. His controversial remarks and anti-abortion policies may prove divisive in these same states. The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade under a conservative majority has made the issue of abortion even more central to the U.S. political debate.

The swing states, with their diverse population of suburban voters, women and younger voters, may see this as a defining issue. Trump, who favors significant restrictions on abortion, could alienate moderate voters and women, whose votes are crucial in swing states. This is the lesson from the last election.

Sadly, the coin is still in the air.