Bumper to Bumper Nightmares for Xi

Miles Yu recently spoke to Taiwan’s “Three Kingdoms” program and mentioned that it was time to raise the major issue of promoting relations between the United States and Taiwan. Yu served as chief adviser to former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on China policy planning under Donald Trump’s administration, so his remarks carry weight.

Meanwhile, speaking at a campaign rally, Trump referred to U.S.-China relations and said he would do to China what it did to him, implying that if he wins the election, he will take a less than polite approach to Xi Jinping.

It is a fact that Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China are “One Country on Each Side.” Furthermore, public acceptance of the CCP pales in comparison to public acceptance of the Taiwanese government. Taiwan has a democratically elected president and legislature; it has its own army, taxation, finances, national anthem, flag and diplomacy. If that is not enough to be considered a country, then what is?

The Republic of China was a founding member of the United Nations and held a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council — one that was only usurped by the CCP once the U.S. and China established diplomatic relations. In establishing such diplomatic relations, the U.S. focused more on international strategy and neglected its moral support for Taiwan, which is a sign of American disloyalty to the Republic of China.

In recent years, Taiwan’s achievements in the high-tech arena have met with widespread acclaim among the international community, with recent figures showing that the total trade volume between the U.S. and Taiwan exceeded that between the U.S. and China. With a population of 23 million compared to China’s population of 1.3 billion, Taiwan’s importance to the U.S. is outstripping that of the CCP. Today, the U.S. could survive without the CCP, but it would have a much harder time surviving without Taiwan.

Successive U.S. administrations have adopted a policy of appeasement toward the CCP. They have been full of concessions and accommodations, allowing the CCP to have its wicked way with the international community — but to pay lip service to the CCP is to invite no end of troubles on oneself. Joe Biden’s administration has studied the CCP for many years, and once Lai Ching-te was elected, Biden was quick to state that the U.S. does not support Taiwan independence, yet this is not something the Democratic Progressive Party government has ever said it wants. If the DPP is not after independence, then how is this any of your concern, Mr. President? To put it bluntly, Biden is just worried that the CCP is not happy. But then, there are lots of things the CCP is unhappy about. Once you start treating them with kid gloves, will you have enough gloves to go around?

In turn, the U.S. asked the CCP not to secretly support Vladimir Putin, but the CCP threw him a lifeline on the sly; it asked it to rein in North Korea, but the CCP encouraged Kim Fatty the Third to stir up trouble instead; the U.S. asked it not to harass the Philippines, but the CCP threw its weight around, as usual; and when the U.S. asked the CCP not to use coercive force against Taiwan, did the CCP cease and desist?

The fact that the Biden administration has been scrutinizing the CCP all along while the CCP has been ignoring the U.S. all along goes to show that the CCP’s means of dealing with the U.S. is more effective, whereas the U.S., in its dealings with the CCP, must often suffer in silence. In recent years, the Biden administration has achieved initial successes by severing ties with and running rings around the CCP in the high-tech and homeland defense areas, so this can be seen as something of a retaliation. But if it does not even amount to that, then it will display not just weakness, but incompetence too.

The best thing Biden has done since taking office has been to restore the international alliance of Western democracies against the CCP. Now Britain, Europe, Japan, Australia, Canada and South Korea are working in concert to weaken the CCP’s international standing, take it down a peg, and place it in a state of unprecedented isolation. Yet, the Biden administration is still taking too delicate an approach, worried about incurring Xi’s displeasure and fearful that the CCP will not cooperate with the U.S. on international affairs.

When the U.S. is good to the CCP, the CCP punishes the U.S., and when the U.S. is not good to the CCP, the CCP punishes the U.S. anyway. Since the CCP will not treat the U.S. well no matter what, why should the U.S. bend over backward to be good to the CCP? This is why, before he even took office, Trump was mouthing off about doing to China what it did to him. If you give me a hard time, he said, I’ll give you a hard time. Let’s see who suffers more.

This is the context in which Yu’s remark about it being high time the U.S. and Taiwan established diplomatic relations sounded an alarm bell to the CCP. The CCP defied the U.S. in international affairs, and the U.S. has responded with a slap in the face that is the establishment of diplomatic relations with Taiwan. In polite parlance, that is what’s known as “returning the favor.” Xi ought to brace himself and prepare for the next move.

The U.N.’s admission of South Korea as a member state proves that, under international law, the same country can be divided into two political entities, each of which can be recognized concurrently by the international community; in dealing with the status of the two Chinas on either side of the Taiwan Strait, there is, therefore, a precedent in following the South Korean model. For decades, Taiwan has been marginalized, unable to enjoy the status a normal country deserves. The fundamental reason for this is that Taiwan lacks U.S. support.

As the U.S. has pandered to the CCP, so have developed countries in the West, such as Great Britain and other European nations; Japan, Australia and Canada followed suit. The CCP has bribed small and medium-sized countries so they are even less favorably disposed toward Taiwan. As a result, the international community has long given Taiwan the cold shoulder, and Taiwan is unable to hold its head up high in the international arena.

Of course, Yu’s remarks were not some personal fantasy; they foreshadowed a future U.S. administration’s stance on the U.S.-China relationship. If the U.S. starts to explore establishing diplomatic relations with Taiwan, other Western countries will change their attitude and won’t have to look to the CCP. Once the U.S. softens its tone, many countries will push for diplomatic relations with the Republic of China.

Taiwan has long since applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership founded mostly by Western democracies. The U.S. needs only to nod yes, and Taiwan’s chances of acceding to the CPTPP will increase dramatically.

To the CCP, nothing in the world could be more devastating than the establishment of diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Taiwan and failing to live up to expectations both domestically and abroad. In a normal country, with diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Taiwan established, Xi would bow out gracefully and retire from office. Be that as it may, this remains a nightmare scenario that will haunt Xi in the coming years.