The Trump Nightmare

According to “International Issues,” the United States can find a solution to all crises except one …

The Subject

While current U.S. President Joe Biden hesitates about how to proceed with Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin or even Benjamin Netanyahu, and while the prospective return of Donald Trump is causing concern from Paris to Kyiv, the whole global population will be living through the American presidential election from now until November 2024.

There are three major questions: Will American institutions fight against a potential return of “Agent Orange”? Is the United States still a great power? And is it still willing to take on this role? All the answers are in “International Issues” (five issues per year), published by Documentation Française.

The Assessment

The assessment, drawn up by the 15 experts who were consulted, shows mixed results. It is unclear whether “the checks and balances of American institutions” are the most effective in protecting the country from a second Trump term.

The war in Ukraine has shown the limits, in asymmetrical warfare, of even an oversized air force and navy. Meanwhile, dependence on electronic intelligence (accounting for half of the classified information presented to the president every day) exposes us to our opponent’s manipulation.

Fortunately, the American economy is doing well. Even if it is an increasing source of inequality and remains highly carbon-intensive, it allows this young nation to constantly reinvent itself — unless Trump comes back.

“China is the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do it.”*

*Editor’s Note: The author is quoting from a speech delivered by Secretary of State Antony Blinken on May 26, 2022, at George Washington University entitled “The Administration’s Approach to the People’s Republic of China.”