America’s Nightmare: How Putin Is Becoming China’s Vassal

Russian President Vladimir Putin has understood that he will win the war with Ukraine only on Xi Jinping’s terms — unless Washington agrees to a compromise with Moscow prior to that.

For many years, Putin’s main role model was Peter the Great. Just like the tsar, the Russian leader wanted to modernize the country and make Russia an independent power. Today, this plan is becoming a thing of the past, and the Kremlin ruler mentions Alexander Nevsky with increasing frequency. Although the prince defeated the Swedes in 1240, and later the Germans in 1242, he was always aware of his dependence on the Golden Horde.

How Putin’s Russia Fell into China’s Embrace

Putin’s official visit to China, which began on Thursday, shows that the Russian president is no longer under any illusions about the nature of his relations with Beijing. This is clear on many levels. Although trade between the two countries ($240 billion in 2023) is proliferating, Russia’s trade deficit is growing at an equally rapid pace. Moscow was forced to supply raw materials, primarily gas, to its southern neighbor at discount prices. Also, Chinese companies are taking over more and more strategic branches of the Russian economy.

This process began a decade ago, when, after the annexation of Crimea, the West began to close its market to the Russians. Today, without China, the Russian economy would probably collapse, and the country would not be able to wage the extremely costly war with Ukraine.

The U.S. cannot allow Russia to have too close an alliance with China. Will Ukraine pay the price?

This puts Washington in an extremely difficult dilemma. If Chinese leader Xi can finally turn Moscow into Beijing’s satellite, the U.S. will have to face an extremely powerful bloc of authoritarian countries with infinite resources of raw materials and sophisticated military technology.

But much also depends on the Chinese, who are waiting for Russia to weaken even more and are still playing for time. On the one hand, China has never condemned Putin’s war with Kyiv; on the other hand, it doesn’t transfer weapons to Russia nor does it recognize the annexation of the territories gained from Ukraine. Xi cannot afford to cut off all economic cooperation with the West. Trying to establish even closer relations with Russia is an argument that may prompt Biden to abandon further tariffs and restrictions on the supply of the latest technology to China. The outcome of this complex game will determine the geostrategic system of the world in the 21st century.