The Guilty Verdict Is Unlikely To Harm Trump, But the Road to It Might

The former president has only himself to blame for his courtroom defeat. His aggressive style could also cause him problems during the election campaign.

Of the four criminal indictments that former President Donald Trump faced, the one in the New York hush money trial was the weakest. The offense — falsifying business records of payments made to avoid embarrassing headlines during the 2016 election campaign — was hardly worth prosecuting, and the legal theory on which District Attorney Alvin Bragg based his charges alternated between innovative and ludicrous.

A clever defense could have generated a hung jury or even an outright acquittal. The fact that the jury, after only a brief deliberation, found Trump guilty on all 34 charges is entirely his own fault.

Defense in Trump Style

Instead of focusing on how weak the prosecution was, Trump’s lawyers denied and fought everything, while the defendant slandered the prosecution’s witnesses and insulted the judge, the district attorney and the jury. This line of defense clearly bore Trump’s signature. It was a strategy that Trump learned from his mentor, the notorious lawyer Roy Cohn, and that has served him well as an entrepreneur, entertainer and politician for decades. In the Manhattan courtroom, it proved to be a flop.

It’s unclear how the guilty verdict will affect the election campaign. So far, all of Trump’s legal problems have only made him even more popular. If Trump’s lawyers appeal, there might not a definitive conclusion by Election Day in November. Even if the judge sentences him to prison, which is unlikely, we won’t see Trump in handcuffs before then.

Victim of the Justice System without Consequences

The remaining criminal trials based on more serious charges related to Trump’s attempt to manipulate the election, the storming of the Capitol and his handling of classified documents are dragging on and will not go to trial this year. Thus, Trump can continue to portray himself as a victim of the justice system without facing the full force of the justice system.

But Trump displayed behavior during the New York trial that could still cost him dearly during the election campaign. Since his election defeat in 2020, he has grown even more aggressive and unrestrained in his attacks on anyone who does not obey him unconditionally. He acts like a dictator who has all the instruments of power in his grasp. But his only weapon at the moment is his popularity.

An Election Campaign Marked by Rants

His combative style thrills his fanatical fans. But will it also appeal to the voters in the center, voters he needs to win the election? Currently, many of them favor him over President Joe Biden in the polls. But will they still do so when the election campaign is in full swing and he unleashes his slander and rants on a daily basis?

In his only successful election campaign in 2016, Trump often adopted a more moderate tone with Hillary Clinton, something many people bought into. The 77-year-old is no longer willing or able to do this — as he demonstrated in the courtroom. If voters in the critical swing states think like the 12 jurors in New York, then Trump’s chances of winning the election are worse than they look.