Will Biden Be as Spry as He Was in 2020?

Are you ready? Thursday evening we may witness “the most important 90 minutes of this election season.”

So said George W. Bush strategist Karl Rove who recently wrote about the first of two debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

“This election could remain tight until the end, but if something can put one candidate solidly ahead, it’s this debate,” Rove said.

It’s not impossible.

But which of the two politicians are better positioned to benefit from the debate? And how?

I joined Professor Bernard Motulsky from the Department of Social and Public Communication at the University of Quebec in Montreal for a discussion. We both agreed to first watch the debates that pitted Trump and Biden against each other in 2020.

At the time of the 2020 debate, I wrote that “never before had a duel between an American president and his rival so closely resembled a mud wrestling match.”

Four years later, that remains as obvious as ever.

But it is also evident that, of the two candidates, Biden had by far the most presidential vibe—even if he occasionally responded harshly to Trump’s attacks, going as far as calling him a clown.

Motulsky makes the same observation. “On one side, you have someone who makes dramatic gestures, who loses his temper easily, who is red with anger, even the color of his skin,” he says about Trump’s performance in 2020.

“And on the other side, you have someone who is almost a wax statue, who isn’t all over the place, so he has more presidential allure. And when he presents a case, he masters it,” Motulsky added.

Polls conducted in 2020 after each debate named Biden the winner.

“What struck me is that he often responded by saying: here’s what needs to be done, one, two, three. He listed three or four elements. He’s an experienced parliamentarian, so he knows how to debate. He knows he mustn’t fall into the traps of the person attacking him,” Motulsky said.

Biden found a winning formula. All things suggest he will try the same approach this year.

“His challenge is to keep his ideas clear, structured, and articulated,” Motulsky said.

To that I would add that Biden succeeded in proving that he was still sharp and dynamic during the two showdowns with Trump in 2020.

He must be equally spirited and sprightly on Thursday, just as he was during his State of the Union address last March.

On the other hand, Trump’s strategists must try to convince their candidate not to repeat his 2020 performances, in particular, the performance in the first debate, where he constantly interrupted Biden to the extent that moderator Chris Wallace had to reprimand him multiple times. It was embarrassing.

Motulsky surmises that Trump can “score points with less aggressive behavior, if he listens, and if he gives responses, but responses that are not just attacks.” And if he avoids saying things like “I’ve done more for Black Americans than anybody, with the possible exception of Abraham Lincoln.”

Let’s not lose sight of the fact that the context this year is totally different. In my opinion, it will make Trump’s task easier for him.

In 2020, Trump was in the White House and he had a track record to defend. Not only had he managed the country chaotically from the moment he took office, but COVID-19 was still wreaking havoc in the United States. He was extremely vulnerable.

Biden took advantage of it.

During the first debate, he pointed out that Trump would be the first president “to have fewer jobs at the end than at the beginning of his term.”

In the second debate, when Biden was attacked over corruption allegations against his son, Hunter Biden, the Democratic candidate turned to the camera to face American people square in the eye as he spoke.

“It’s not about his family and my family, It’s about your family. And your family’s hurting badly,” Biden responded. “If you’re a middle class family, you’re getting hurt badly right now.”

This year, however, Biden is the incumbent. It’s his track record that the debate will examine and criticize.

In the opinion of many observers, this record is relatively good. But the president had a hard time defending it, primarily because of the impact inflation has had on Americans’ wallets.

“The roles have changed,” Motulsky noted.

They have reversed… but not completely. That’s because Trump has already spent four years in the White House, and Americans, in some cases, are still paying the price. The fate of the right to abortion is one of the most potent examples, and Biden will certainly forcefully emphasize it.

And not to mention, the Republican candidate is now and forever the first former president to be convicted of a felony.

In short, the number of explosive subjects on the agenda as well as the very nature of the two candidates are indeed likely to transform the presidential debates into a significant event. Anyone concerned about the fate of our powerful neighbors would do well to tune in.

The first of the two presidential debates between Biden and Trump takes place on June 27 in Atlanta, Georgia, on CNN.