NATO’s Future: What Happens to Eastern Europe if the US Withdraws?

If Donald Trump returns to power, it looks bad for Ukrainian aid. He could weaken NATO. For Eastern Europe not to become fair game for Vladimir Putin, Europe needs to work together more closely, writes our guest author, who is an expert on Eastern Europe.

Despite Russia’s bloody attack on Ukraine, East Central Europeans feel quite safe today. They trust NATO as a U.S.-led organization, thus considered to be as strong as Moscow. At the same time, many politicians, diplomats and experts in Eastern Europe question the future for their counties should Donald Trump win the U.S. presidential election in November 2024.

Trump has no clear foreign policy profile. Some consider him to be pro-Russian or even controlled by Vladimir Putin via compromising material. “A Trump victory in 2024 would undoubtedly lead to the end of American support for Ukraine,” warns Alexander Vindman, a retired U.S. lieutenant colonel born in Kyiv and former director of U.S. National Security Council. “Without American political and material support, Ukraine would be forced to fight the war with considerably less resources and would likely remain on the defensive footing indefinitely. Trump would also likely push [Volodymyr] Zelenskiy to immediately enter negotiations with Putin. While Trump and his team would likely present this as a diplomatic victory, we should remember that Trump’s interests in Ukraine are mostly grounded in seeking Vladimir Putin’s personal approval and his personal vendetta against Zelenskiy and me.”

Others see Trump’s unpredictability as a potential problem for the Kremlin. They speculate that Trump could be an advantage for Central and Eastern Europe. Trump recently stated that, had he been president in 2022, he would have bombed Moscow in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Many Eastern Europeans are unhappy with Joe Biden and his indecisiveness on Russia. However, while Biden and the Democratic Party are predictable, Trump and his followers are a risk.

Fear in Eastern Europe is so widespread that Russian respect for the Western Defense Alliance could dwindle after the next U.S. presidential election. Should the solidarity of NATO or Washington’s commitment weaken, Central and Eastern European countries could once again be fair game for Russia — just as they were before they joined NATO. The range of scenarios that could occur has been clearly demonstrated through the recent fates of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.

Eastern Europeans Remember Soviet Oppression

Over the past 30 years, Eastern Europe has not become accustomed to a seemingly perfect world order. Unlike Western Europe, there is no magical belief in the political power of peace. Eastern Europeans remember czarist and Soviet oppression, as well as the Western betrayal of European values.

The collective awareness of national security in Central Eastern Europe continues to be shaped by the memories of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939, the division of Europe at Yalta in 1945 and the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.

The functioning logic of NATO as a defense alliance is based on trust, clarity and predictability. That might not be the case if Trump once again becomes the U.S. president. Worse yet, a narrow defeat for Trump in the presidential election could result in unrest or even instability in the U.S.

Washington might no longer be in a position to pursue a decisive foreign policy, with serious consequences for NATO’s ability to function.

Eastern Europeans have learned to expect the worst. Trump’s foreign policy behavior as president would continue to be determined by more than just the, at times, quirky ideas from his political camp. Even if Trumpists get back into the White House, they cannot simply ignore American institutions and traditions.

Nevertheless, in the worst-case scenario, Ukraine would no longer receive American aid. The U.S. commitment to stand by NATO countries could be called into question. If either Trump wins or his defeat triggers domestic political turmoil, Europe would have to change quickly and fundamentally.

A European-run NATO, without the full participation of the U.S., would have to reposition itself. If NATO were to disappear completely, the EU would have to transform itself from a mere economic and political community into a security and defense alliance.

Geopolitical Risks Are Increasing

By granting EU candidate status to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia in 2022 and 2023, the EU and its 27 member states became indirectly involved in three European territorial conflicts with Russia. Since the beginning of 2024, more and more European states have been concluding security agreements with Ukraine. The EU has just signed a security and defense partnership with the Republic of Moldova.

The EU’s now strong involvement in the post-Soviet era would mean that geopolitical risks would increase rapidly if the U.S. were to withdraw from Europe. It would be a moment of truth for the continent and a test for the much-vaunted European idea. Over the past 70 years, the question has always been in the air as to whether European integration and security exist only because, and as long as, Washington has its protective hand over the EU.

If the American protective shield falls away, the vision of a self-sustaining, united Europe could prove to be fiction. European countries would have to practice a completely new form of security, foreign and defense policy cooperation among themselves.

After 70 years, the question of whether Moscow can assert its hegemonic claims in Europe would no longer be directed primarily at Washington. The answer would depend on the extent to which the nations of Europe see themselves as a genuine community, with all the consequences that would entail.