China: Are Trump and Harris Alike?

As strange as it may seem, Chinese nationals blithely ignored the globally televised CNN debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden the last week of June. Criticism in big city media was limited to describing it as a bad piece of publicity for Western democracy.

The fact is that within the ideology of those who lead the country — a philosophy that is transmitted and imposed on the community — the battle unleashed by the United States against the rise of China in the global sphere will not significantly change no matter which of the two parties in the American “establishment” comes to power.

It is true that Trump initiated the disagreement between the first and the second world powers. The Republican candidate kicked off his presidency by imposing tariffs on some $550 billion worth of Chinese goods. From that point on, observers of world geopolitics began to believe that Washington saw Beijing as a significant threat to the U.S. economy and was, therefore, prepared to impact companies and consumers — on both sides — in order to maintain its global hegemony.

Beijing also does not forget that Biden and his Democratic administration, in addition to maintaining Trump’s tariffs, engaged in tightening controls on exports to China of semiconductors and the technology to manufacture them, and has continually encouraged their allies in Europe to adopt the same restrictions. China remains equally mindful of the challenge posed by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s awkward 2022 visit to Taiwan, one of China’s main areas of territorial interest.

With Kamala Harris now heading the Democratic ticket, Beijing’s perception is that if this candidate becomes president, she will continue to pursue Biden’s objective to prevent China from damaging American global hegemony. If Trump’s policy remains “America First,” it is clear that containing China’s influence in the world will be a bishop on either American political chessboard.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry currently estimates that consensus will prevail in Washington between both parties that China will be considered a major adversary. But in practice, the actions and international tools of each of them, once in power, could be more or less favorable. It is impossible to determine now which relationship policy will dominate, but undoubtedly the Asian colossus will be among the priorities of either party.

Other elements related to both security and the economy have entered the game and are being carefully watched by Chinese leaders. We are referring to the ongoing regional wars and their impact on the Asian giant, the U.S. political-military solidarity with Taiwan, and U.S. and European sanctions on Russia.

Trump and Harris would manage many international policy issues with the same decision-making tools, although there are specific, vital issues in the international arena that will set them apart. But let’s be clear: As far as the election goes, both Democrats and Republicans will use the relationship with China as a punching bag.