In Response to the US Election, There Should Be 2 Scripts for New Southbound Policy

Now that the United States presidential election is almost certain to see Kamala Harris going head-to-head with Donald Trump, the impact of the election results on U.S. foreign policy and the global political and economic situation are attracting global attention. The political, economic and trade policies of Asian countries in particular will be directly affected by whomever takes control of the White House, and Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy is unlikely to come away unscathed. We therefore need to address the practices of other countries and prepare two different scripts for a response.

Harris is the Democratic Party’s candidate against Trump, and people expect that her economic and foreign policies will broadly continue those of President Joe Biden. Harris has visited ASEAN countries including Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia as vice president, and has represented Biden at ASEAN and APEC summits, so she is familiar with Southeast Asian affairs and is not likely to make any drastic policy changes.

In contrast, India has relatively mixed feelings about Harris. Upon taking office, Trump improved U.S.-India relations and restarted the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which saw India leapfrog its way onto U.S. strategic concerns, and a mutual appreciation blossomed between the two powerful leaders, Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Although Biden continues to attach importance to India, the White House has repeatedly criticized India’s close ties with Russia, provoking a backlash from the subcontinent. While Harris’ maternal Indian heritage has made her the pride of Chennai, she has also been a relentless critic of India’s human rights record, leading to India’s misgivings about her candidacy.

During his time in office, and in terms of economic and trade policies, Trump imposed sanctions on ASEAN countries (frequently using anti-dumping measures; imposing sanctions on ASEAN imports of steel, aluminum, automobile, solar panel and home appliances, and requiring ASEAN to increase its purchases to balance the surplus with the U.S.), all of which were a major headache for the region. Trump has so far repeatedly stated that if he takes office again in 2025, he will impose tariffs on imports, tighten immigration policies and put an end to “offshoring.” All these measures would affect the ASEAN countries’ economies and trade, as they have greatly benefited from the global supply chain shift and the Biden administration’s promotion of “friend-shoring” in recent years. Moreover, the soaring U.S. trade surpluses of countries like Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia may be a source of further friction.

Apart from economic and trade policies, the incoming U.S. president’s foreign relations policy will also affect politics and foreign policy among ASEAN countries. When Trump was in office, he regarded countries as either friends or enemies depending on their position regarding China. This was a source of dissatisfaction among ASEAN countries, and in response, the Biden administration repeatedly stressed that it would not ask ASEAN countries to choose sides. However, the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war and its support for Israel have caused resentment and boycotts of U.S. businesses in ASEAN Islamic countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia.

The U.S. presidential election has far-reaching effects on many countries, which is why the election attracts global attention. Recently, there has been a rumor that many countries are working on two scripts to deal with whomever takes office next year. For us in Taiwan, a Democratic victory would mean that most of the Biden administration’s policies on Taiwan are likely to continue under Harris, but the future of U.S.-China relations will be a matter of concern. With his “America First” and fair-trade mindset, should Trump return to office, in addition to the direct impact his return will have on Taiwan’s U.S. military purchases, trade and investments, will he continue to push for U.S.-China economic decoupling? Could Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy be affected if Trump imposes trade protections or even sanctions on ASEAN countries and opposes offshoring and friend-shoring? As many countries have started developing two sets of response scenarios, the relevant ministries in Taiwan should also be ready.

The author is director of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research’s ASEAN Studies Center, Taiwan.