Trump Doesn’t Care about Balance (But Kamala Does)

There is no evidence in the United States that proves beyond doubt that a vice presidential candidate has a decisive impact on the November election.

However, experts generally agree that the choice of a running mate says a lot about the judgment of the presidential candidate.

It already seems clear that by selecting Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Kamala Harris has made a wise choice.

It only took us about 20 minutes to see this Tuesday night.

On stage, during his first campaign speech, Walz delivered a solid performance.

We have discovered a skilled, charismatic, energetic, and optimistic politician. He is also clearly a fighter. This is a valuable quality to have, as running mates are often on the frontlines in a presidential race, both to fend off rival attacks and to strike blows.

But even beyond all these advantages, what makes Walz a particular asset is the way he balances the Democratic ticket.

This was also very clear during his remarks.

“I was born in West Point, Nebraska. I lived in Butte, a small town of 400, where community was a way of life. Growing up, I spent the summers working on the family farm,” he said.

He then talked about the 24 years he spent in the National Guard, having been encouraged to join by his father, a Korean War veteran.

He followed by discussing how he had not only been a teacher for nearly 20 years, but also a football coach before diving into politics in 2006 in a district “that had one Democrat since 1892.”

He won and served 12 years in Congress. He was more centrist back then, and was even in the good graces of the National Rifle Association before he was elected governor of Minnesota.

It was a very different path from that of Harris.

Harris, an accomplished lawyer, grew up in urban California (and in Montreal for a few years). She notably worked in San Francisco, a city that a significant portion of the America right depicts hell on earth.

As French singer Francis Cabrel sings in his famous song of the same title, “it’s a question of balance” that gives strength to the Democratic ticket this year.

And this is not at all unusual.

The complementary nature of the two Democratic candidates was also notable in 2020 when the Joe Biden and Harris duo defeated Donald Trump.

And this is just as it was in 2012 and 2008. Barack Obama, criticized for his lack of experience particularly in foreign policy, recruited Biden to remedy that. As a bonus, this Senate veteran was from an old industrial town in Pennsylvania and boasted that he remained close to the working class.

Incidentally, Trump also understood in 2016 that he had an advantage in recruiting a complementary right-hand man. He understood that he needed to fill certain gaps in his candidacy to be less vulnerable.

That’s what led him to choose Mike Pence. The extremely religious governor of Indiana reassured both evangelical Christians and traditional Republican voters.

But this year, confident about winning in November, Trump has instead favored one of his disciples, JD Vance, a senator who knows the gospel of Trumpism by heart and recites it with enthusiasm on a daily basis.

This is not an irrational choice.

Vance has talent. He has become one of the former president’s most formidable defenders. And he excels in verbal jousting, interviews, and debate.

Moreover, he is from Ohio. Like Minnesota, it’s a Midwest state, a region that plays a key role in the presidential election. He’s also a former U.S. Marine, who was deployed to Iraq for six months in 2005.

But Vance doesn’t consolidate the Republican ticket like Pence did back in the day. Or as Trump’s fiercest rival within the party, Nikki Haley, could have done this year.

Other Republicans, like Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, could have also appealed to voters who aren’t already staunch Trump supporters.

The American press reports that several members of Trump’s staff tried to discourage him from recruiting Vance, including his wife, Melania. She had allegedly “urged her husband to tone down the aggressive rhetoric and to choose a running mate who would help him do that,” according to The New York Times.

But rebalancing was not on the agenda for Vance’s staunch supporters who surround the former president, including Donald Trump Jr., billionaire Elon Musk and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

In short, Trump could have been even more threatening to the Democrats if he hadn’t favored a politician who will do little more than preach to the converted as his successor.

Note that I’m not saying the selection of Vance will prevent Trump from returning to the White House. It’s first and foremost the performance of Trump and Harris from now until Nov. 5 that will tip the scales.

If the former Republican president triumphs, he’ll have an official heir in Vance, a good method of ensuring that Trumpism has a bright future.

On the other hand, if Trump loses, it’s almost certain that people will point to the choice of his running mate as one of the mistakes that sabotaged his chances. And it will be evident once again that the New York billionaire was the architect of his own downfall.