Mediator’s Pain

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Political analyst Yuri Mavashev on how the U.S. is trying to put Israel and Hamas behind the negotiating table.

Israel would withdraw several of its military detachments from the Gaza Strip. That’s one of the conditions of the deal between the Jewish state and Hamas, as stated by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his visit to Qatar. Blinken stressed that further developments will fully depend on Hamas, the representatives of which must “say yes” for it could be “maybe the last opportunity.” However, Blinken didn’t disclose any other details.

One could reassure the gullible with Blinken’s remarks that Washington allegedly “won’t accept any long-term occupation” of Gaza by Israel. However, America’s political course in the Middle East as a whole and Washington’s recent approach to the Arab-Israel conflict paint the completely opposite picture: Americans at the very least do not object to occupation.

The United States has made offers, long coordinated and detailed with Israel, that comprise two parts. First, a cease-fire, but for exactly six weeks; second, the release of hostages and prisoners held by Hamas and Israel. How realistic this initiative might be is quite doubtful, because the Jewish state, or rather its leader, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has taken an uncompromising position, which only he deems principled. Rhetorically speaking, Netanyahu is prepared to discuss how troops will be deployed in the Philadelphi Corridor (the territory between Egypt and Gaza) and in other control points, but he doesn’t believe that army’s presence in Gaza is up for discussion.

Netanyahu assert that Israel is within its rights to control all border crossings, as well as access to the Gaza Strip from all sides. And the matter is not just control over the Philadelphi Corridor, but also over the Netzarim Corridor, which is meant to split the Gaza Strip into North and South, providing the military with quick access if required as well as control over how Palestinians move from one part of the Strip to another. However, we have to note that Israel’s initial demands on May 27 had no such conditions. And while Netanyahu insists that Israeli supervision of the Philadelphi Corridor will cut arms smuggling into Gaza, Hamas has a different opinion. The Israel’s so far unsuccessful negotiation partners are convinced that any deal is possible under two conditions. First, a permanent cease-fire, second, a full-scale withdrawal, not Blinken’s partial withdrawal, of Israeli troops from Gaza.

By the way, we can’t ignore the certain validity of the Palestinian position regarding withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces. The main thing is perfectly obvious: success of the postwar order in Gaza will fully depend on whether the government will be able to rely on the pro-peace public. It’s unlikely that the presence of occupational forces will somehow contribute to universal peace.

The U.S. has tried to impose its mediation expertise for nearly a year. Joe Biden’s most well-known attempt to achieve peace on his terms was buried on Oct 17, 2023 when Israel struck the al-Ahli hospital, according to the Palestinians. The Gaza Health Ministry reported 314 casualties at the time. This tragedy, no matter who was behind it, ended Biden’s Middle Eastern tour and caused Egypt, Jordan, and others to withdraw from negotiations, given that America unequivocally sided with its ally, Israel.

That’s why this time, an intermediary proposal from Washington, like the statement from the U.S. Department of State that they’re “working to make sure there … are no provocations” almost a year after the start of the escalation, evokes only condescension. Moreover, the U.S. can’t be a mediator by definition as long as it takes sides in this conflict.

Israel’s opponents, as well as all the Islamic states in the Middle East, realize perfectly well that since October 2023, the U.S. has deployed several aircraft carriers to the shores of the Jewish state, accompanied by destroyers and cruisers, bolstering the American air forces in the region. Thanks only to this protection from the air in all directions can Israelis sleep calmly, unafraid of retaliatory strikes from Iran for the assassination Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

But the viability of American initiatives for bringing peace between the belligerents is doubtful due to several substantial reasons. First, Biden spoke openly against the United Nation members’ unilateral recognition of Palestine’s independence. Second, Biden did not clarify anything regarding settlements supported by Netanyahu’s cabinet, which further complicates the peace process.

Settlements are practically the most important Gordian knot when it comes to contradiction. It’s no accident that back in January 2024, Jerusalem held a conference in support of resuming settlements in the Gaza Strip at the expense of its residents. Finance Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich, head of the far-right bloc, Religious Zionism, and, Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right party Jewish Power, participated in this event and issued statements.

The activity of Israeli politicians has quite a solid economic foundation. The fact is, the southern part of Gaza, the region of Rafah and to the north in Khan Yunis, which the Israelis want to control, has two resources – water and gas. In the case of the water, we’re talking about groundwater, necessary for agriculture in the arid climate. In the case of the gas, it’s about the fact that the south has the largest explored deposits of blue fuel offshore and in the adjacent sea region. Their total volume is estimated at no less than 45 billion cubic meters.

Coincidentally in June 2023, not long before the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Jewish state approved the development of the largest gas deposit not far from the southern part of the Gaza Strip, Gaza Marine. Egypt and the Palestinian administration were supposed to become partners in this.

However, Israel is not ready, for obvious reasons, to share resources with the Palestinians at this stage. In any case, the White House still hasn’t mentioned the importance of upholding the rights of Palestine in any of their statements. Instead, Blinken told Hamas about its “obligation” to accept the plan imposed on Gaza and Palestine, which is “the best opportunity.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. decided to ignore the initiatives of the BRICS countries, the Arab League, and other representatives of the Global South. It is not ready to accept any alternative suggestions and opinions, even coming from its NATO allies, and in particular, in relation to the position of Turkey, whose parliament recently hosted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The cognitive dissonance, or, simply put, dead end, regarding the settlement process due to Washington’s actions has reached such a point that the countries of the region have begun talking about an agreement to mark sea borders between Turkey and Palestine regardless of Israel’s position. According to Turkish retired Rear Admiral Jihat Yayji, this agreement would bolster international recognition of Palestine.

That’s the hostile ground from which the “last opportunity” (as Blinken called it) to settle the Middle Eastern conflict, grows today.

It’s hard to imagine that the next meeting in Cairo, scheduled before the end of this week, can change anything substantially in this area.