Challenges for the US on Nov. 6

Inequality and polarization are two problems that the White House will not be able to avoid

The whirlwind of the U.S. election over the past year has concealed structural problems that brought in the partisan polarization dividing the country. Institutions, starting with the White House, are going to have to wrestle with this polarization. Unlike previous election cycles, and despite the fact that there is a world of difference between the two candidates, the perception is that both Democrats and Republicans are aware of the sources of the discontent.

The Donald Trump phenomenon and the discrediting of institutions cannot be understood without taking into account the perspective of the middle class, which lost out in the crises of this century, primarily the mortgage crisis in 2008; the pandemic; and the inflation crisis in 2023. In each of these cases, the middle class saw the erosion of the opportunity for it to thrive, a promise that is the basis of social cohesion in the U.S. With employment at a record high and surprisingly good macroeconomic data, about half of U.S. residents still say they are worse off economically, and 40% claim that they can’t make it to the end of the month. Because of that, the two candidates have focused their economic message on the impoverished middle class.

The housing crisis, which is a key factor in this economic anxiety, has been partly the result of a reduction in the number of available housing units and deregulation in the rental market. Housing costs have risen 47% in four years, excluding from the market millions of people who in 2019 could aspire to home ownership. It is a collective trauma that requires a long-term solution involving every administration, no matter who is in the White House.

The concern about immigration is not going to go away, either. The fact that a majority of voters are demanding restrictions is already a victory for Trump. On the other hand, the Supreme Court decision to roll back federal protection for abortion ignited a wave of demands that cannot be reversed. Whether at the state or federal level, there is a majority that will keep pressuring for the recovery of that right. This is a battle that the Republicans have lost, just as the Democrats have lost the battle over immigration.

Perhaps the most important problem that the U.S. will wake up to this Nov. 6 is the extreme partisan polarization, which will only increase over the short term. The U.S. is a fractured country which, as the model for what the word “democracy” means around the world, has as its first challenge the restoration of the confidence of its citizens in its institutions.