A New Version of the Cold War

A new version of the Cold War: Barring the unexpected, that could well be what the world faces in the next two months.

Are we headed back to the time of “Mutually Assured Destruction,” the premise of the Cold War, according to which the major powers of that period, the U.S. and the Soviet Union, had such large arsenals of nuclear weapons that they avoided direct confrontation in order to avert mutual destruction?

Barring the unexpected, that could well be what the world faces in the next two months: President Joe Biden’s authorization for Ukraine to use U.S. tactical missiles (ATACMs) against military targets in a part of Russia comes in the final stages of his administration, motivated by a president like Donald Trump, who said during his election campaign that he would cancel aid to Ukraine and that this time, he would end the war started with the Russian invasion in 2022.

The announcement of the embassy closures in Kyiv because of the fear of Russian bombardment in retaliation for long-range missiles provided by the U.S. being used to attack military targets in Russia dramatized the state of affairs of a conflict that has now been developing for more than a thousand days.

In principle, the war is being waged against Ukraine. Russia is not only a bigger country; it is a military power in its own right. And it has succeeded in overcoming the economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the European Union, thanks to China and India’s purchases of raw materials, above all oil and natural gas.

According to all reports, Russian forces have made advances in several areas adjacent to regions they already occupied. The arrival of almost 11,000 North Korean soldiers through a pact with North Korea is making it possible for the Russians to enlarge their area of operation.

In other words, the Ukrainian government knows that it has limited time before it will find itself obligated to sit down at the negotiation table. For this, it will at least have to stay in a strong enough position to limit the concessions it will probably be obligated to make.

Vladimir Putin’s government in Russia will face its own decisions. Russia is once more at the center of global politics, but it has the advantage of a clear geopolitical doctrine, which has historically led it to seek to protect its territory by means of a security corridor of allied countries on its borders.

But its policy will lead to brushes with the U.S. under Trump, even with his isolationist tendencies, and with a Europe that does not trust and has never trusted Russia, although it does need its raw materials.

So, yes, perhaps the world is facing a new era of MAD, which definitely means Mutually Assured Destruction, only a different style: Over the past century, the view was that to avoid a direct clash, the major powers confronted each other through third parties, whether based on their political alliances or by supporting disgruntled elements on the other side. But today, the name of the main economic competition for the U.S. is China.