Syria: Is the US Seeking To Open Another Front Against Russia?

Although the United States has disavowed connection to the jihadist offensive perpetrated by Turkey and Israel, a possible Pentagon objective would be to open a new front against Russia to force a diversion of Russian air power from Ukraine, thus slowing its counteroffensive in Kursk and Donbas.

US Constructive Chaos

The Carter Doctrine (1980), inspired by Zbigniew Brzezinski, had as its objective the implementation in the Near and Middle East of what came to be known as “constructive chaos,” a concept based on a maxim attributed to Roman emperor Julius Caesar: “Divide and conquer.” It would establish a field of instability and violence in the region (Balkanization) and generate a chaos that would spread from Lebanon, Palestine and Syria to Iraq and from Iran and Afghanistan to Pakistan and Anatolia (Asia Minor).

Thus, the former president of Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, who was overthrown for his refusal to install U.S. bases on Egyptian soil, revealed in an interview in the Egyptian daily El-Fagr the existence of an alleged plan to divide the entire Middle Eastern region. It consists of the establishment of the aforementioned “constructive chaos” through successively destroying the autocratic regimes of Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Syria and Iran — and of reserving for Jordan the role of the “new homeland of the Palestinian people.”

Is the United States Seeking To Open a New Front Against Russia?

Taking advantage of Bashar al-Assad’s official visit to Moscow and the fact that Friday was already a holiday in Syria, jihadist groups under Turkish and Israeli guidance unleashed a lightning offensive, entering Aleppo, the second largest city in the country, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.*

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is the group most involved in the current offensive against the Assad government. Led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the group essentially controls the Idlib Governate and would itself be under the remote control of an Israel interested in the formation of an Islamic caliphate with its capital in Aleppo. Likewise, the surprise attack would have involved forces of the National Front for Liberation, a group backed by Recep Erdogan, who is obsessed with absorbing the Kurdish-Syrian state of Rojava.

Although the United States has dissociated itself from this new battle, after stating that it “has nothing to do with the offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,” the Pentagon’s unequivocal objective would be to open a new front against Russia, thus forcing Russia to divert air forces from Ukraine and slow its counteroffensive in Kursk and the Donbas region. Several squadrons of Russian aircraft have launched violent air strikes against the jihadist-controlled neighborhoods of Aleppo, as well as the Idlib base.

Plus, the Syrian Arab Army is already preparing a counteroffensive for Assad’s return to Syria, to recapture Aleppo and other areas occupied by the jihadists — a military venture that would have support from Syrian Democratic Forces led by the Kurds, as well as Shiite militias from Iraq.

Given both the air superiority of forces loyal to Assad and missiles supplied by Russia, it is foreseeable that the official counteroffensive would end up cornering the HTS jihadists, who would have to take refuge in Libya, as well as the members of the NFL, who would find refuge in Turkey. Meanwhile, Erdogan would already be a pariah for Vladimir Putin, who would try to provoke a coup d’état by the Turkish Army, definitively ousting Erdrogan.

Finally, we would witness the signing of a new Kurdish-Syrian agreement establishing the autonomous region of Rojava, or Syrian Kurdistan, under U.S. supervision. The rest of the Syrian territory would remain under the presidency of a strengthened Assad, thus allowing Russia to maintain its naval bases and control the maritime routes of the Eastern Mediterranean.

*Editor’s Note: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham took Damascus on Dec. 8, and Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, where he was given asylum.