One thing is certain — Donald Trump himself is having a great time. But his good mood is in contrast to the anxiety of European commentators. Never before has there been such uncertainty in modern times. I see four main problems in the future.
Donald Trump’s new term is beginning. One thing is certain — Trump himself is having a great time. At a huge pre-inauguration rally in Washington, D.C., he announced, “We are going to give them [supporters and opponents] the best first day, the biggest first week, and the most extraordinary first 100 days of any presidency in American history.” In a celebratory mood, the president-elect, together with the Village People, danced to the energetic disco “Y.M.C.A.”*
Donald Trump and the Other 3
This sentiment is in contrast to the anxiety of European commentators. Never before in modern times has there been such uncertainty about what to expect from a new president.
French weekly Le Point announces a new world order, and on the cover presents only four figures of the world’s most powerful people: Trump, of course, then Chinese leader Xi Jinping, then Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayip Erdoğan, Turkey’s strongman. Not surprisingly, there were no Europeans among them. The diagnosis: economic independence of individual countries, weakening of alliances such as NATO, and great uncertainty about maintaining world peace. And Europe itself faces great threats and military and investment weakness.
Obviously, Trump disregards the American idealists who built the existing order. He believes that America has benefited too little from it, and deserves much more, but — what is very troubling — the superpower does not have to be as concerned with the world and the fate of its allies.
The Forgotten Jan. 6
I can see four main problems in the future.
1. The forgotten shock of Jan. 6. We have almost forgotten the shock of an angry mob’s armed attack on the sanctity of American democracy, the Capitol, in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6, 2021. Five people were killed and at least 138 police officers were injured. The whole world watched these events with amazement and horror, and the FBI recognized the attack as an act of domestic terrorism. It also seemed that the president himself would be among the thousands sentenced to prison, who — according to many witnesses from the immediate surroundings — incited supporters to attack. He himself repeatedly said that he didn’t accept the election result. There are recordings of him pressuring an election official in Georgia in 2020 to “find” him thousands of votes missing to win.
Today, all of this is forgotten without any consequence. And what seems to me the most disturbing is that if you can just move on as if nothing had happened, it means that anything is possible. We can confidently disregard the rules and responsibilities and depend on force. Trump’s actions and declared claims have led to the degradation of the notions of the rule of law and respect for democracy.
Trump Is Selling Lies
2. Trade wars posing a world threat. Trump’s won on the hope of improving the U.S. economy, as voters, including small business owners, were convinced he would do better than Kamala Harris. America is already doing much better than Europe anyway; it is more innovative and dynamic than our Old Continent. American business also thrives by attracting the best talent from around the world. Yet Trump laments that the U.S. has a negative trade balance, that Americans pay too much for imported goods and export too little, too cheaply. As we know, he considers tariffs to be the most beautiful word in the language, and he plans to increase them in trade not only with China, but also with neighboring countries, as well as with European allies.
Will he really do that? We don’t know. In mid-January, the all-important Congressional Budget Office publicly warned of a steep, sweeping tariff hike. Yes, it is necessary to reduce the budget deficit, experts admitted, but they noted that tariffs would reduce the size of the economy in general due to expected retaliation from trade partners. The CBO wrote bluntly that tariffs would increase inflation and protectionism of the major trading powers would be “collective suicide.”
Martin Wolf, one of the most important commentators for the Financial Times, a kind of Bible of the finance world, expressed a very disturbing opinion. Presenting his new book, “Crisis of Democratic Capitalism,” he said about the new president’s team, “They sell falsehood. They’re just cheaters. Trump and his ilk have no coherent idea of how to solve society’s problems.”*
Ukraine: Maybe Tomorrow, Maybe in 100 Days
3. Ukraine and, consequently, our security. Popular opinion holds that Trump is unpredictable, which is difficult for me to consider as an advantage, because how are we supposed to shape our own policy in the face of threats? In the past, he promised to end Russia’s war with Ukraine in 24 hours; today he talks about 100 days … One day, 100 days, maybe a year, what difference does it make? You can say anything.
Trump’s circle of supporters fight for diverse ideas. Keith Kellogg, a retired general chosen by Trump as special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, is expected to advocate for continued support for Kyiv. He does not believe or trust in Russia’s goodwill . On the other hand, Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist, still very influential, wants to unequivocally break with Ukraine. He has publicly warned that military involvement could become a second Vietnam for the president, a historic defeat. In turn, the military-industrial complex is obviously in favor of supporting Ukraine, if only because modern equipment is produced primarily in the U.S. and it is impossible to think of a war without buying from America.
It should also be noted that American society assesses Russia completely differently from European countries — especially Russia’s neighbors. I have the impression that America feels completely secure, convinced that it is in absolutely no danger from Putin’s Russia. It’s quite different from the Cold War era, particularly when nuclear weapons were a significant source of fear, and children were taught to hide under school desks from a nuclear attack. This change of attitude also affects politics.
Biden Warns
4. The oligarchization of America. I have tremendous feeling for outgoing President Joe Biden — not just because he wanted to mobilize the democratic world to fight against all dictatorships, but primarily for historical reasons. Biden perfectly understood the world. The fact that in 1998 the U.S. Senate voted to accept Poland into the NATO alliance was largely due to Sen. Biden and his passionate speeches.
We must not forget the warnings of the outgoing president. In his farewell speech, he warned his compatriots about the concentration of wealth and power in the country. “Today, an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power, and influence that really threatens our entire democracy,” he said. He called for an end to “dark money” in politics. He also warned that the nascent “tech industrial complex,” that is, the power of the industry of new technologies, combined with their wealth, creates a risk of disrupting the development of society.
Trump, or the Unknown
These warnings take on extra significance today because of Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, who’s on Trump’s team. Musk reportedly donated $250 million to the presidential campaign and boasts today of having a huge influence on U.S. politics. He does not hide his support for far-right parties in Europe, including the Alternative for Germany [in Germany], which questions Poland’s borders. Just a few days ago, former French Ambassador to Washington Gérard Araud, who got to know both Trump and Musk better, warned against Musk. Araud recalled that X (formerly Twitter), since Musk acquired it, has become, and I quote here, “a cesspool of hate, racism, conspiracy theories, and powerful disinformation,” all in the name of “free speech.”
With the added diminishing role of traditional media, which filter information and distinguish truth from lies, it’s difficult to ignore the whole phenomenon. Without truth, known and accepted, it is difficult to have a democratic debate, it is difficult to conduct a decent, honest policy. The questions that arise about Musk’s role are much more serious for our future than those that are associated with Trump, Araud argues and recalls that in the first term, Trump also said terrible things at the beginning, but in the end, it was possible to get along with him because he knows how to present every solution as his success even if he softens his stance.
In a word — nothing is clear yet, but I would not join in dancing to the rhythm of Village People.
*Editor’s note: The band that performed at Donald Trump’s inauguration was not the original group.
**Editor’s note: This quote, accurately translated, could not be independently verified.
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