Trump Is a Bully Who Can Be Bought Pretty Cheaply

Intimidate first, then give in: Western partners will manage to tolerate the U.S. president’s vain negotiating tactics. But it will be arduous.

The trade-related roller coaster that Mexico and Canada have endured at the hands of the U.S. president over the past four days provides a glimpse of what’s to come under Donald Trump during the next four years. By announcing high tariffs directed toward the U.S.’ two neighboring countries, Trump took an irrational step that risked causing considerable damage to the U.S. and massive damage to Mexico and Canada.

But the initial shock soon wore off. Within two days, both governments had managed to postpone the introduction of the tariffs by one month, offering concessions of a more symbolic nature. The soldiers that Mexico and Canada are set to send to the border to prevent illegal migration and fentanyl smuggling were promised long beforehand.

That’s typical Trump. He starts by aggressively intimidating his counterpart, only to ultimately accept compromises that the other party can tolerate. This tactic inspired the title of his 1980s book, “The Art of the Deal.” He is now implementing the strategies that worked in the fierce New York real estate market in his role as president of a superpower.

Personal Vanity

These tactics chip away at trust and credibility, but Trump doesn’t seem to mind. Despite his “America First” rhetoric, he is less concerned with national interests than with personal vanity. Trump doesn’t govern like a businessman. Instead, he behaves like someone who can be appeased by submissive behavior and superficial success. All that matters is that he feels he got his way and wins praise from Fox News. He loves to play a bully who can be bought cheaply.

This episode will give America’s international partners hope that they can live with Trump. For weeks now, he has been threatening Denmark with the potential occupation of Greenland. But he might be satisfied if U.S. companies secure mining rights and the American flag is hoisted in the icy landscape.

Hope for Ukraine

Trump’s latest statements about Ukraine are particularly significant. Kyiv can easily get on board with his proposal to link further U.S. support to the supply of rare earth minerals; in fact, the idea came from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself. Ultimately, what other option does Ukraine have with its mineral resources but to export them? It’s a safe bet that, in the future, far more money will flow from the West to Ukraine to support the war effort and reconstruction than the other way around. And if Trump really wants to secure the rare earth minerals, he must now provide Ukraine with significant military support. Russian troops are on the verge of capturing regions with important deposits. Trump’s offer is evidently his way of embedding a necessary geostrategic decision into his egotistical worldview.

This finding is not really reassuring. Time after time, international partners will have to come up with new gifts to make the selfish ruler in the White House happy. This will affect Mexico and Canada in a month’s time, and the EU perhaps even sooner. It’s striking that China is sidestepping this game entirely and openly fighting back. The democratic world will probably survive the Trump era. But it won’t be easy.