Who Will Replace Trump?*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

The idea of Donald Trump serving a third presidential term, promoted by the White House and Trump himself, lacks a solid foundation. Beyond constitutional restrictions, the decision to nominate a presidential candidate ultimately lies with the Republican Party establishment, the “Grand Old Party.” That decision isn’t just up to the leadership of the Republican National Committee but also involves the party’s key power players. Major donors — some of the most influential financial and business groups in the U.S. — also have a say. Among them are strong military-industrial alliances. In 2023–2024, Trump gained unified support to run as the party’s nominee. However, that support is far from guaranteed for the 2028 election.

Moreover, by 2024, the GOP had successfully overcome its leadership crisis. This crisis had plagued the party since 2008, preventing it from competing equally with the Democrats. Now, the Republican leadership has a deep bench of strong candidates. Among them are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, known for his charisma, and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a strong and forceful leader. Additionally, the promising JD Vance, already serving as U.S. vice president, should not be overlooked. Together, they present a serious challenge to Trump’s potential comeback in the 2028 race.

Another key factor to consider is DeSantis’ political future. He won’t be eligible to run for Florida governor in November 2026, since he has already served two terms since 2019. This leaves him with no choice but to seek opportunities at the federal level. As a result, he will likely become the GOP’s front-runner for 2028.