Trump Administration’s Confrontation with Yemen*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

The Trump administration’s military operation against Yemen’s Houthi movement, Ansar Allah, is a vivid example of the White House’s governing style: largely impulsive, driven by the demands of the moment and undistinguished by any deep thought. Thus, the decision to strike the Houthis was, in no small part, influenced by Israel’s current needs.

Washington’s approach has been inconsistent— today’s policy can shift dramatically overnight, depending on the mood in the Oval Office. Moreover, Donald Trump and his team are not inclined to play a long game. They prefer quick, high-impact moves designed to deliver immediate results.

Accordingly, the operation against the Houthis is limited in both scope and duration. The U.S. will stick to airstrikes; a ground invasion of Yemen is off the table. The Pentagon is well aware of Ansar Allah’s combat capability and the broader resilience of Yemeni fighters. A ground war would be fraught with great loss for the United States — a risk the administration won’t take.

In terms of timing, Trump’s team won’t try to extend the operation for months as President Joe Biden did with previous interventions. Trump needs immediate results. If there is no notable success soon, the mission will likely fizzle out, with officials declaring that its objectives have been met.

However, U.S. intervention will have lasting consequences for the Middle East. Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar have granted the U.S. Air Force access to their territory. At a time when Hamas has been weakened and Hezbollah is under pressure, Ansar Allah remains the strongest military in the “Axis of Resistance” (besides Iran). The Houthis won’t let their Gulf neighbors’ cooperation with Washington go unanswered, making further escalation all but inevitable.

The author, Maksim Minaev, Ph.D. in Political Science, is head of the Foreign Policy Research Department at the Center for Political Studies.