The Downfall of Globalism

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Vice Rector of Russian Foreign Ministry Diplomatic Academy Oleg Karpovich discusses how American tariffs widen the divide in the Western camp, and what we should expect from Europe.

The trade war started by the U.S. against the majority of the world’s countries has undoubtedly become a crucial milestone in the development of globalization processes. Truthfully, now we can consider globalization itself no more than a rudiment of history, the bespoken end of which Donald Trump celebrated in his trademark epic style. The globalist paradigm rested on the capitalist camp’s view of Washington as a caring patron, directing the development of global markets with its wise advice. But the patron turned out to be not a father for them but a cunning, opportunistic salesman wishing to extract value from its junior partners’ acute dependency on its bottomless resources.

The high halls of London and Paris haven’t gone through such psychological shock for a long time. Their entire picture of the world, unshaken since at least the Marshall Plan’s implementation, went downhill. It’s unsurprising that the Europeans, as with the representatives of other countries who suffered from Trump tariffs, don’t know how to conduct themselves. Amusingly, they thrash around the global arena, reacting to the unfolding circumstances in full improvisation mode.

Some try to keep a straight face and threaten America with powerful countermeasures — which, in reality, could put the final nail in the coffin of their own national economy. Others call Washington, ingratiatingly begging to remain on friendly terms and find a way out of this grand crisis, hand-crafted by the president of the U.S. himself. Of course, that doesn’t refer to China and other leaders of the global majority, who for a long time have been prepared to exchange tariff blows with their American opponents, and who have every opportunity to force Trump to regret his eccentric decision. But, having chucked his old opponents and his allies from the collective West (which isn’t so collective anymore) into the same basket, the master of the White House has conducted a true revolution in the foreign political thought of his country.

Mass demonstrations have already begun in the U.S., organized by a mix of liberal globalists and their left antipodes, who have been dormant since Trump’s election success. Billionaires are also unhappy; they suddenly realized that the administration, which in theory is represented by their like-minded people, began to play by rules seemingly invented as they go.

The American leadership will definitely have to face significant resistance. But the Trumpist team is bent on seeing through what they have begun, and they are doing everything they can to show that the tantrums of both external and internal critics don’t faze them. The usual suspects from those bemoaning the unipolar world era have already began discussing how Washington’s trade attack destroys the foundation of the entire system upon which the Euro-Atlantic alliance rested. In many ways, such a theory isn’t baseless.

However, we must note that the final downfall of Euro-American society would happen if the representatives of the Old World decided to show the U.S. their teeth. That, naturally, isn’t what’s happening. The would-be politicians from the European Union and the United Kingdom, having accepted their lot, prefer to admit their subordinate position and do everything they can to avoid getting on the bad side of the emotional American leader. They well understand that deepening the conflict with Washington isn’t in the interests of the European elites, who still harbor plans to torpedo the Ukrainian settlement and win back Washington’s good will. If the differences with the U.S. would escalate, the very existence of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization could be in danger, and the Old World’s “right-wing” parties will finally step to the fore, pushing liberals and centrists to the curb of political life. So, London, Brussels and Paris will maneuver on bent knees until the end, trying to convince Trump to change heart. It’s just like Thucydides said: The strong do what they want, while the weak suffer as they should. No more, no less.

For Russia, in this situation, it’s important to observe the unfolding circumstances from the sidelines. The decision of the U.S. not to introduce tariffs against our country is clearly linked not only to active, powerful anti-Russian sanctions, which have ruined the majority of bilateral relations, but also to Trump’s realization that the stakes are high in the grand geopolitical game regarding the Ukrainian question. Amid internal turbulence, he has to offer his electorate at least some successes in the global arena, bringing to life his ambitious election promises. In those conditions, forcing de-escalation of the hybrid war against Moscow turned out to be the most realistic and beneficial step for the U.S. The Trump administration, with all the harshness of its actions, can’t afford war on several fronts with its shock-stricken economy.

That’s why there’s a window of opportunity today on the Russo-American track for the activation of diplomacy. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, lest we forget that our task is not to rescue Trump’s reputation and ratings but to achieve the goals set by President Vladimir Putin within the special military operation. Any interaction with American negotiation partners at the current stage should be conducted using both carrots and sticks, providing a mirrored response to Trump’s own approaches to the dialogue with Moscow. The time has come for decisive action, complex combinations and challenges, precise and highly professional diplomatic work and uncompromising pressure. It’s our time: We’re ready for it.