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Posted on May 4, 2011.
Osama bin Laden has been killed; if Obama said this, then it’s probably true. If the U.S. has verified that bin Laden is dead, then it ought to say that this will possibly directly affect America’s security policies and even some of its global strategy issues — in particular, its regional policies in South Asia and Afghanistan, as the U.S.’ relations with these countries will be affected. When America began its war on terrorism in Afghanistan, its main purpose was to eliminate al-Qaida and bin Laden. Thus, regardless of how bin Laden was killed, this result is a great victory for the U.S.
On the other hand, whether or not al-Qaida is able to, in a short period of time, find another leader to take the place of bin Laden is a very important problem. I do not believe that this is possible, because al-Qaida still lacks this sort of foundation. The physical state of al-Qaida’s second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, is unclear. However, to a considerable degree, Ayman al-Zawahiri now plays an even larger role in many things, so it’s hard to say.
From another perspective, this situation is definitely a severe blow for al-Qaida, the Taliban and other terrorist organizations; therefore, many countries will need to thoroughly think about their foreign policies regarding this region. In particular, Middle Eastern countries — like Pakistan and Iran — that border Afghanistan will definitely be pondering over their foreign policies. Al-Qaida’s presence in the turbulent border regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan has been weak for a long time. These circumstances, namely bin Laden’s death, will limit al-Qaida’s actions. This is obviously good for regional security.
It’s worth noting that we cannot over-generalize and think of the Taliban as one terrorist organization. Moreover, we have now differentiated between the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban; these two groups are very different from each other.
Regardless of how it’s said, bin Laden is dead, and this is a great victory for America. This is most likely the greatest victory for America since the war on terror began in 2001, because the U.S. has already spread its domestic security strategy to Afghanistan. In view of how important bin Laden’s death is, America will most likely rethink and adjust policies regarding its domestic security strategy and its global strategy.
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