When America Is Frustrated

In the coming days, the United States will try to use a “carrot and stick” approach with the Palestinians. The stick is to block the Security Council to make clear to the Palestinians that they have no chance of obtaining U.N. member status, without America having to veto.

The carrot is an attempt at consolidation with the Quartet’s proposed resolution formula, which may be brought before the U.N. and will declare the intention to establish a Palestinian state within a framework of renewed political negotiations, similar to Security Council Resolutions 242 after the Six Day War and 338 after the Yom Kippur War. In both resolutions, a principle is established for negotiations that will allow for the realization of a Palestinian state.

The United States is pushing in this direction because it fears a situation in which Palestinian disappointment with an American veto at the U.N. will fuel riots in the Middle East that will begin in the West Bank and spread to Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. The greatest fear is that these riots will spiral out of control. This is the scenario that the U.S. fears above all else, and this fear is dictating the administration’s strategy for the coming days.

Americans are furious about all the factors in the Middle East, but mainly about Abu Mazen [Mahmoud Abbas], who did not accept their proposed formula. Washington is also furious about scornful comments made by Nabil Shaath, who said that the conduct of the Security Council will be a humiliation for the U.S., and they will pay the price if they veto. Washington sees that the mouse is beginning to threaten the lion and doesn’t like it.

The Tragedy Is That America Doesn’t Have Many Alternatives

When the U.S. looks at the leadership in the Middle East, it sees before its eyes a bunch of lunatics. Mahmoud Abbas went crazy and doesn’t listen to Washington’s advice; Erdogan went off the rails; not to mention Bashar al-Assad, who is behaving like a madman with receipts. Even Netanyahu hasn’t escaped harsh criticism, the likes of which Robert Gates has recently made heard and is prominently expressed in an article by Thomas Friedman in The New York Times that we obtained yesterday. Friedman writes what Obama doesn’t want to say aloud: Netanyahu endangers the interests of Israel and the United States.

The Americans are very frustrated with the situation that has been created in the Middle East and their lack of ability to influence events. Their diplomacy is on the rocks. The U.S. offered to mediate between Turkey and Israel, but the offer was rejected with contempt. The Palestinians stand on their own and anticipate the U.N. process in a contrary stance to the U.S. Washington sees how its most important coalition in the Middle East, that of Turkey, Israel and Egypt, is falling apart before its eyes. Turkey has less democracy and more Islamization. In Egypt, fear exists that the Muslim Brotherhood will take control of the country. The U.S. understands that the opportunity of the Arab Spring has diminished and instead there is a greater chance of an “Islamic Winter.”

The tragedy is that America lacks any alternatives. The only recourse for the Americans is to threaten a veto at the Security Council. The veto threat is not to defend Israel, nor to satisfy the desires of the Jewish vote in America, but to show the Palestinians and Turkey that the U.S. can also be contrary. The attempts at blocking the Security Council were meant to show that the U.S. is reasserting itself.

It Will Be the U.S. Who Will Rescue Us from the U.N.

Paradoxically, the conduct of the Palestinians before the Security Council strengthens the claims of the Israelis that the Palestinians do not want negotiations. In America and also in Europe they are beginning to understand that they have a problem with Mahmoud Abbas, who wants to make history with the U.N. resolution. The Palestinians will pay the price for this, in the form of a cessation of U.S. aid, but Israel will also pay a price. It was the U.S. who saved the Israelis from the recent Cairo embassy attack; it will be the U.S. who will rescue us from the U.N., and everyone knows there is no such thing as a free lunch, even when the U.S. is weakened. The situation conceals in its depths many dangers and threats, but Obama was given another opportunity to demonstrate leadership. If he is successful, he will receive serious credit. If he fails, it will be very bad for all of us, because when the U.S. is weak, so is Israel.