U.S. Veto of Palestine Joining U.N. May Cause Butterfly Effect

Today will be an important day for the Palestinian people because Palestinian Authority President Abbas will submit the application for Palestine’s U.N. membership to Secretary Ban Ki-moon, seeking to be the 194th member of the U.N.

However, this day will also be a worrying day for the Palestinian people because the Obama administration, which formerly supported Palestine’s establishment, will use its veto power. Such concern is out of “respect” for Israel’s relationship with the U.S. as well as consideration for Obama’s election campaign.

Not long ago, Obama criticized Israel terribly and expressed a positive attitude toward Palestine’s establishment as a state. However, such harsh words caused strong opposition in Israel, and Jewish interests group even hinted that they’ll give Obama a hard time during the election campaign. Seeing how George H.W. Bush’s failure in continuing in office resulted from offending Jews, Obama, with surprisingly low support, has no way to go but to change his attitude toward Israel and back them on the issues of Palestine’s statehood and its application for U.N. membership.

Obama’s recent attitude has pleased Israelis. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who quarreled badly with Obama, firmly claimed that Palestine’s efforts in pursuing U.N. membership would fail. America is cooperating with Israel closely. Netanyahu thinks that America’s efforts and the actions of other countries will bankrupt Palestine’s pursuit.

However, Israel should not feel relieved too early because a bigger threat is around the corner. As has been said in the U.S. media, when the Palestinian people’s hope is cut down, Israel will have to pay an equal price: Its security pillar will collapse, and Israel will fall into an unprecedented desperate situation. As for the U.S. government, it will become the hostage of its own unwise policy.

In terms of possible subsequent impact, the Israeli government seems prepared for the worst and has established emergency law. Meanwhile, Israel has greatly increased troops along the west coast of Jordan in an effort to prevent Palestinians from holding a large scale demonstration. However, the real trouble is not the demonstration, but the possibility that anti-Israel power will be more effective.

On the one hand, Israel’s arrogance and the Obama administration’s inconsistency will let down a majority of Palestinians, and anti-Israel and anti-America sentiment will surge. As a result, the long tranquility between Palestine and Israel will be destroyed. Such a situation won’t be good for Israel, which has already been suffering from economic problems and domestic pressure. Before this, Israel’s young people demonstrated on the street to protest exorbitant housing.

On the other hand, anti-Israel powers like Egypt will have more pretext. In fact, the changing situation in North Africa and the Middle East is not favorable to Israel. Not only have friendly Mubarak and neutral Gadhafi been deposed, but now the new Egyptian leaders play the anti-Israel “card.” In addition, people in Egypt are motivated to fight against Israel, and the siege of Israel’s embassy was one example.

Israel also worries that further conflicts will be aroused. Israel has had many wars with Arab countries; it has won because the U.S. and U.K. have supported it, and Arab countries were not united, with Egypt playing the role of peacemaker in recent years. However, at present, Egypt takes a tough stance toward Israel. Israel undoubtedly worries that more conflicts will occur and it may be attacked front and rear. Although Saddam is gone, Israel’s deadly enemy Iran is still staring at it.

The U.S. is no longer as strong as before. Nowadays, it is stuck in enormous economic and social problems domestically, and facing many wars and geopolitical predicaments externally, all of which leaves it no more strength to take care of Israel as it did before. In addition, at heart, Obama doesn’t like Israel, which makes it hard for the U.S. to oppose Arab countries on Israel’s behalf. All of this means that after the veto of Palestine’s U.N. membership application, the Middle East will probably step into a new period of unrest.