Predicting the New U.S. Administration

Breaking away from an idea of ‘following the U.S.’

Finally, Barack Obama has been elected the next president of the U.S. And it’s a huge victory with way over 270 delegate votes. As young as 47, a black president has been chosen for the first time in the country’s history.

As John F. Kennedy broke a religious wall, Obama broke a racial wall. That is the reason, along with his eloquence and young age, why he is called the “Black Kennedy.” Now, Obama is calling for dialogues with the world and unity of the divided American public opinions. His figure reminds us of Abraham Lincoln, who called for unity during a national crisis.

However, Obama’s victory perhaps would not actually be easy if the financial crisis didn’t surface. The most important issue for President Obama now is to deal with the crisis. In this sense, Obama is overshadowed by the figure of Franklin Roosevelt, who faced the Great Depression with the New Deal.

And, if he fails to deal with it, then the Obama fever will quickly, and he might have to step down from the White House with one term only. Then he would make the same error Jimmy Carter made and become the “Black Carter.”

As for Obama’s diplomacy, restoring security in Afghanistan and the Iranian nuclear program are the most important assignments. Compared with those, the North Korean nuclear issue in Asia will not be on a high priority for the new administration. That’s the situation that the Japan-U.S. relationship is in.

Starting from independent reexamination of diplomacy

The new Obama administration will ask Japan for much more cooperation for reconstruction assistance in Afghanistan. However, the stance of the Japanese government has been that it cannot deploy its peacekeeping army. The level of cooperation in Afghanistan is a matter of policy making decisions by individual countries. Nonetheless, we have to seriously rethink the decision on what kind of global participation is necessary as Japan is looking for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. Only 40 Japanese soldiers have been deployed in the U.N. Peacekeeping Operation (PKO), while the amount of Official Development Assistance (ODA) from Japan has been cut.

Moreover, Japan has to reconsider independently how it defines a solution to Japanese abductee issue as well as its means and tactics, not just demanding help from the U.S. Although it could not resolve either the nuclear issue or the abductee issue without the U.S., the balance between Japan’s independence and America’s participation has become important.

The author has been asked many times how the Obama’s victory could influence Japan-U.S. relations. But the question lacks independent thinking on what Japan should do and wants to do with the relationship at this moment.

It has been a while since the Japanese government and the Foreign Ministry were criticized for always toeing the U.S. footsteps, but aren’t media and the public opinions that criticize them toeing the U.S.? We live in a democratic society. If the voters could not stay away from the toeing, it is no surprise that their government and Foreign Ministry follow the U.S. footsteps.

Global Strategy on Public Relations

Lastly, there is a problem of public relations. Obama has been trying to change the image of the U.S overseas. Japan will need much better concerns and techniques to improve its own image abroad. The importance of good impressions and the pursuit of independence will never be inconsistent each other. One who ignores the former and pursues the latter would be self righteous, while one who is conscious of only the former would be toeing or hypocritical.

Images for which Japan does not repent make an apology are clearly inaccurate. The present author, despite his limited faculties, has discussed with Europeans, Chinese, and Koreans a number of times in a global conference and so on. There is probably no doubt that it is important to study history in a delicate manner in order to correct those images.

Aside from those studies, calm and convincing speakers are essential, too.

The narrow idea that only our own theories are true modern history and correct historical awareness , while calling those who raise an objection against them “anti-Japanese” makes it difficult to gain support from opponents as well as a wide range of third parties. The time has come for both Japan and the U.S. to reexamine their ‘image strategy.’